722 
FXUS64 KMAF 060747
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

There may be a brief period of IFR cigs and/or MVFR vis at MAF 
around 12Z, otherwise VFR conditions will continue at all
terminals. Winds will remain light out of the ESE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

We are expecting another cloudy and foggy start to the morning 
across eastern portions of the region. Latest GOES-16 night fog 
product shows low clouds on the increase across the Stockton 
Plateau. These clouds will expand N into the eastern Permian Basin 
early this morning. Patchy fog will also be possible across the much 
of the Permian Basin as near saturated conditions are reached. 
Visibilities could fall below 1SM at times. The shallow moisture 
will mix out and low clouds should clear by 11 AM CDT, setting the 
stage for a warm and sunny afternoon. High temperatures across the 
area are expected to rise above normal in response to increasing 
hghts aloft. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s east to 
near 80 degrees west of the Pecos River where the presence of the 
low lvl thermal ridge is most pronounced. 

Sunday looks to be similar to today. However, low clouds and fog are 
much less likely Sunday morning and we have left out mention in the 
grids. The upper lvl ridge axis will shift east into the Lower 
Mississippi Valley and southwesterly flow aloft will increase over 
West TX. This will promote further warming, especially across 
western Portions of the CWA. Highs on Sunday will reach upper 70s to 
lower 80s which is around 8 to 10 degrees above normal. Enjoy the 
warmth this weekend!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

Long fetch sw flow aloft will tap into upper-level moisture from the 
Pacific on Mon. That same sw flow aloft will serve to maintain a 
well-defined low-level thermal ridge with high temp departures of 
+10-15 degrees. On Tue a weak cold front will attempt move to near I-
20 before becoming diffuse, but still enough change in the MSLP 
pattern to result in some cooling, except far sw-s reaches of the 
CWFA. Warmer temps (10-20 degrees above normal) will return Wed 
ahead of the next cold front that will arrive Thu AM. Surface winds 
will be on the gusty side Thu AM. GFS does indicate a surface high 
with pressures of 1030mb across most of the CWFA Thu AM and lows in 
the 30s certainly possible Fri AM. Cool temps will continue into Fri 
PM-Sat AM with warmer daytime highs Sat PM being signaled by surface 
pressure falls. ECMWF does show a narrow window for precip across 
the far e Thu AM, but is trending farther e.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76  45  77  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 78  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   74  47  76  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            79  49  84  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           75  53  77  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    77  41  80  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    78  37  79  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     76  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   76  47  78  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     79  40  82  46 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$