108 
FXUS63 KIND 011702
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
102 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1017 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021

Going forecast appears to be mostly in good shape, although with 
temps running a few degrees below forecast across the northwest and 
a good midlevel cloud deck on its way in per satellite imagery, did 
lower max temps a bit across that portion of the forecast area. Also 
nudged up wind gusts this afternoon slightly per BUFKIT soundings. 
Remainder of forecast is largely left alone. Models, including CAMs, 
continue to advertise potential for a few showers, primarily late in 
the day into this evening across the south with a broad upper level 
disturbance.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure over 
the northern plains states. A deep low was found over NE Quebec. 
This was resulting in cool NW flow across Indiana. GOES16 shows 
clear skies across the state and dew point temps were in the 30s. 
Water vapor imagery aloft shows a deep and broad low over northern 
Ontario...resulting in mainly zonal flow across the United States. 
Within this flow...some upper level moisture was streaming out of 
the Rockies as a weak short wave over dropping out of the Canadian 
plains.

Today...models suggest increasing moisture within the column. This 
appears to be due to the arrival of the moisture aloft over the 
western plains combining with the arrival of the short wave and 
associated forcing dropping toward Indiana from the upper midwest. 
Forecast soundings show a top down saturation today that never 
really reaches the surface...as dry air remains in place there. 
Given the cool and dry NW flow in place across the region at the 
surface...will just trend toward increasing cloudiness today. 
Ongoing cold air advection is also expected as 850mb temps look to 
fall to near -2C by 00Z. Thus will trend highs at or below the NBM.

Tonight...The passing short wave looks to depart the region. This 
leads to subsidence aloft as forecast soundings dry out through the 
overnight hours. Meanwhile at the surface the strong area of high 
pressure over the plains begins to expand to the east...along with 
the west to east surface ridging nosing into the Ohio Valley. Thus 
will trend toward decreasing cloudiness overnight. With dew points 
near 30 along with clear skies and calm winds...a freeze will be 
expected in many locations.

Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow remains in place across the Quebec and 
the northeastern parts of the United States as a short wave within 
this flow pushes through the Great Lakes. Indiana looks to remain 
far enough away from this forcing to remain rather non-
impacted...with W-NW flow in place aloft. Meanwhile at the surface 
strong high pressure remains in place along with dew points in the 
20s. Forecast soundings remain dry. Thus will trend toward just some 
partly cloudy skies along with highs at or below the NBM as a cold 
air mass remains in place with 850mb temps near -5C suggested.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021

A broad upper trough will encompass much of the Great Lakes, Ohio 
Valley, and northeast U.S. for the duration of the extended period 
as a low pressure system continues its track through the Hudson Bay. 

Initially, forecast ensembles were trending toward some low 
precipitation chances around midweek and even next weekend.  Any, 
rain chances will now be well south of Indiana as the trough deepens 
on Wednesday.  And, the weekend Plains system is also trending 
farther north, keeping rain and the first chance for snowflakes out 
of the area.  Any southward shift in the track of that system though 
could easily put precipitation chances back in the forecast late in 
the weekend, will continue to closely monitor those model trends.
 
So, with no rain from the first trough and ridging both aloft and at 
the surface for the second half of the week, the forecast will be 
dry throughout the extended period at this time.  The main focus 
instead will be the below normal temperatures in the northerly flow, 
especially through Friday.  Daytime highs are progged to top off 
only in the 40s from Wednesday through Friday with overnight lows 
plummeting into the low 20s, which is about 10 to 12 degrees below 
normal for this time of year.  As surface flow shifts to the 
southwest late in the period, temperatures will increase by the 
weekend, but still only 50s for highs and low to mid 30s for lows.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021

IMPACTS:

* VFR with no significant impacts anticipated.

DISCUSSION:

Broken to overcast mid and high clouds are moving in and will 
persist much of the period. A weak upper level disturbance may 
produce a few showers, primarily south, but low level dry air may 
produce virga and chances of impact at any one site are far too low 
for mention. Winds will be primarily 290-320 less than 10KT, 
although may be a bit more variable at times.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Update...Nield
Short Term...Puma
Long Term...TDUD
Aviation...Nield