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273 FXUS62 KJAX 302133 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 533 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Mid/upper level trough swirls north of our region this afternoon over the central appalachians/Mid Atlantic region. A shortwave at the base of the this trough is rotating over central GA as evident in the GOES east Day cloud phase distinction channel showing orange and yellow tinted mid and high level clouds made up of ice crystals now traveling east from Macon to Savannah. A 997mb surface low is centered directly beneath the upper trough feature with an attached occluded front extending eastward from the low into the Jersey shore while a coastal trough off of the Outer Banks of NC is extending SW over the western Atlantic waters and into south FL sliding further away as it it exits east of our coastal waters. Ridging aloft over the central and southern plains follows behind the mid to upper trough and this feature is supporting surface high pressure to our west from the Ozarks southward to the TX gulf coast while slowly building eastward closer to our region. Low level moisture has kept the deck of stratocumulus clouds locked in over most of SE GA while some drying of the low levels over NE FL has allowed for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies further south. With a pinched gradient between surface trough to our north and east and the high building in from the west, breezy west to NW winds persist once again this afternoon with winds in the 15-20 mph range occasionally gusting up to 30 mph. Conditions will be dry through sunset with a possible exception of a sprinkle over SE GA areas where stratocumulus clouds will remain. Below seasonal high temperatures have only peaked into the mid upper 60s over SE GA and the upper 60s to around 70 over much of NE FL which combined with the breeziness will certainly make it feel like fall for folks enjoying outdoor festivities to start the Halloween weekend. Tonight, the low to the north will translate to a coastal low near southern New England and move further NE of the region while high pressure influence will slowly move in from the west. As a result, winds will decrease from the west to around 5-10 mph and skies will become mostly clear save for portions of SE GA NW of Waycross closer to the upper low where some stratocumulus will stay through dawn. Cold air advection will allow overnight low temperatures to be cooler than seasonal averages into the upper 40s west of I-95, and the low 50s along the SE GA coast and the low to mid 50s at the NE FL coast. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]... High pressure will influence the region during the period as mid/upper ridging moves quickly east from the MS valley on Sunday to the east coast on Sunday night, then flattens on Monday as broad troughing begins to sink over the eastern half of the U.S. as mid/upper level ridging begins to amplify from the Rockies northward into Alberta Canada. The surface high over the mid south on Sunday will sprawl east towards the area ahead of a cold front that will progress from the plains on Monday to the Mid Atlantic region on Tuesday, then sinking south and east near the area on Tuesday night as stronger high pressure builds in from the northern plains states. This pattern will keep dry and mostly sunny conditions over the area with some increase in high clouds on Monday afternoon and evening as a shortwave and increasing upper level jet migrates over the area from the Gulf. Less breezy winds on Sunday from the NW will lighten and become northerly Monday through Tuesday. Afternoon highs will slowly warm to seasonal levels Monday and Tuesday into the mid/upper 70s after below seasonal afternoon highs only in the low 70s on Sunday, making for a not so frightening forecast for Halloween. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... A dry cold front will stall near the area on Wednesday into Thursday as strong high pressure builds in from the NW. The high will shift north of the region on Thursday as low pressure forms near the northwest Gulf coast and then tracks eastward into the area. Mid/upper to level support from a deepening southern stream shortwave trough and increasing moisture will allow for a chance of showers and a few storms to return across the the area Friday depending on whether the low tracks more south, which the GFS favors, or a more northward track which the ECMWF favors. Future forecasts will refine the low's track and the potential for thunderstorms. North to NW winds will filter into the area on Saturday behind a cold front on the back side of the low and high pressure will build from the NW. Temperatures will be near seasonal Wednesday through Friday and then cool to below seasonal values on Saturday. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Sunday] Stratocumulus clouds were streaming across southeast Georgia and the I-10 corridor. The clouds were beginning to scatter out towards KSSI, and expect VFR conditions to develop over the next few hours. Skies are expected to clear out overnight into Sunday morning, with sunny skies on Sunday. Breezy westerly winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots will continue this afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening to around 5 knots or less, and then increase to 5-10 knots on Sunday. && .MARINE... High pressure will build from west tonight through Sunday with breezy winds from the west northwest winds and elevated seas as low pressure departs northeast of the coastal waters. High pressure will then build from the northwest Monday into Tuesday with light northerly winds, then northeasterly winds Wednesday into Thursday as the high builds north of the region. Low pressure will track over the waters on Friday with showers and the potential for a few thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for all area beaches through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 49 70 46 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 53 71 54 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 51 73 52 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 54 73 56 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 GNV 49 73 48 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 51 73 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&