780 
FXUS63 KFGF 291801
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
101 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Fog continues to slowly dissipate around Bemidji at midday.
Visibility has improved at several sites, with 1 to 3 mile
visibility now a bit more widespread. As such, will allow the
dense fog advisory to expire, and issue an SPS through 21Z.

UPDATE Issued at 1002 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Dense fog continues to impact the region from Baudette, to
Bemidji, to Elbow Lake. The fog is slowly eroding on the eastern
edge, with winds expected to pick up slightly and help dissipate
it from the west as midday approaches.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

The dense fog expanded into the rest of our Minnesota FA, so also
expanded the advisory there as well. The far northwest corner of 
Minnesota is starting to see some improving visibilities, but they
remain a quarter mile or below from Baudette to Bemidji to 
Detroit Lakes. Still uncertain how long it will take before this 
fog goes away this morning. It could be as soon as 9 am, or it may
take a while longer. Winds will stay light well into the morning,
and the sun angle remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Fog will result in the most impact for the early part of the short
term period. Visibilities have dropped to a quarter mile or less
for areas just to the east of the Red River, and a dense fog
advisory was issued earlier to cover that hazard.

As of early this morning, skies remained clear with light winds.
In the wake of the clouds that are now just east of the FA is 
where the dense fog formed. This area picked up the most rain this
past Wednesday. Plan on expanding the advisory to include most of
the eastern FA in the next hour or so. Have gone with 9 am as the
expiration time on the advisory, but with the weak sun angle and 
minimal early morning winds, would not be surprised if the fog 
takes longer to scour out. After this point, it should be a mainly
sunny day, with winds slowly turning to a southerly direction. 
This looks to be the last 50 degree day for a while. A cold front 
will move through on Saturday, bringing colder temperatures, gusty
northwest winds, and possibly a few light showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Fairly quiet and cool weather is expected throughout the long term 
as a trough builds over the Hudson Bay and ridge dominates 
over SW Canada. As this happens a NW flow sets up bringing dry 
and cool air to the region. Temperatures cool to the upper 30s to 
low 40s across the majority of the area for daytime highs. 
Winds look to be on the increase Sunday afternoon as gradients 
tighten during the afternoon. Gusts may reach 25-30mph at times, 
with sustained winds near 15-20mph. 

There is a slight chance for precipitation Tuesday as a short wave 
works its way down from northern Canada. At this time those chances 
are slim as moisture content is limited across the northern plains. 
Near the end of the long term ensembles hint at the ridge out west 
breaking down slightly turning flow slightly more zonal. This would 
help to increase chances for short waves to transverse across the 
region. No impacts are expected during the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

LIFR conditions continue at KBJI at midday as persistent fog
remains in place across the area. This area should slowly improve
this afternoon. VFR ceilings and visibility prevail at KGFK, 
KDVL, KTVF, and KFAR. The primary impact heading through the TAF 
period will be the passage of a strong cold front Saturday, with a
wind shift to the north. Gusty winds will range from 20 to 30 
knots through the day, with the strongest winds occurring during 
the early to mid- afternoon hours.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ006-009-
     017-024-032.

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Spender
AVIATION...Lynch