102 
FXUS64 KTSA 290315
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1015 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Have allowed all wind advisories to expire, as most gusts have 
fallen below 40 miles an hour. Every now and then, an isolated 40+
mile an hour gust appears, but they have been few and far between
since the sun has set.

Scattered to numerous showers continue to move south across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, mainly to the east of
Highway 75, and the latest HRRR says this trend will continue for
much of the rest of the night. Have expanded low pops west a bit 
in the 06-12Z period to account for this. 

The clearing line has moved little this afternoon and evening, and
have raised cloud cover overnight in most places. Also raised
overnight lows a couple degrees.

Update has already been sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Northwest Arkansas TAF Sites...IFR/MVFR conditions along with 
scattered rain showers and breezy/gusty winds will remain common 
tonight and into Friday as the backside of the upper low continues
push off to the east. During the afternoon hours
Friday...conditions look to be more MVFR to low end VFR through
the end of the period.
Eastern Oklahoma TAF Sites...some scattered rain showers maybe
possible into the overnight period otherwise broken VFR conditions
and breezy/gusty winds are forecast. Late tonight into Friday
morning there could be a period of MVFR conditions and will carry
tempo groups for Northeast Oklahoma. During the day
Friday...conditions are expected to lift back to VFR by mid/late
morning with cloud cover scattering out during the afternoon hours
behind the exiting upper low. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 157 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Gusty conditions persist this afternoon as strong northwesterly
winds wrap around the vertically-stacked cyclone currently across
southwestern MO. Have observed frequent gusts around 40-45 mph
across parts of eastern OK, with an occasional 50+ mph gust 
(highest so far in our area has been a 53 mph gust at the Foraker 
mesonet site in Osage county). Thicker cloud cover farther east 
has limited the mixing and kept winds a bit in check, but still 
seeing gusts of 35-40 mph for the bulk of eastern OK/northwest 
AR. Wind Advisory products are scheduled to expire at 00Z for 
eastern OK and 03Z for northwest AR. It's possible these will need
to be extended and will defer this decision to the evening shift.
Otherwise, areas of mostly light showers will linger through the 
night, with precipitation tapering off across northwest AR on 
Friday. 

Milder weather is forecast for the weekend as mid-level heights 
rise in the wake of the exiting cyclone. Halloween weather is 
looking great, with highs in the 60s/lower 70s and temperatures 
falling into the upper 40s/mid 50s during the evening.

The initial wind shift associated with the next front will sag
through the area on Sunday, with deepening cooler air expected to
hold off until early next week. Rain chances could arrive as early
as late Monday, with the better chances expected later Tuesday
into Wednesday as a stronger wave zips across the region in the 
southern stream. Temperatures are expected to remain below 
normal, with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s/40s. 
Could see our first light freeze late in the week for parts of 
northeast OK and northwest AR.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05

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