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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTSA Product Timestamp: 2021-10-24 17:19 UTC
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839 FXUS64 KTSA 241719 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VFR to periodic MVFR ceilings will overspread the terminals through the afternoon with clearing from west to east from late afternoon through late evening. This will loosely coincide with the cold frontal passage. Numerous showers and storms are expected along the front from far NE OK through NW AR with associated flight level impacts. Lesser coverage expected southward through SE OK. VFR conditions return overnight with a chance of MVFR ceilings building back into far NW AR late tonight through Monday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1053 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021/ ..UPDATE... DISCUSSION... Warm and breezy day ahead of the approaching cold front which will be moving into northeast OK over the next couple of hours. Timing remains consistent with the front clearing NW AR / SE OK by late evening. Storms are expected to develop along the front by mid to late afternoon with highest chances across far NE OK and spreading through far NW AR with the frontal passage. Sufficient instability / shear profiles will support a risk of severe storms. Any pre- frontal storms or storms which can outpace the advancing the front will have the highest potential of more significant severe weather. The passage of the front will mark the end of the severe weather threat for any specific location. Updated forecast will add temporal resolution to storm chances along with minor adjustments to sky cover and wind speeds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 82 50 69 52 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 85 54 74 51 / 20 70 0 0 MLC 81 53 74 54 / 20 40 0 0 BVO 81 46 66 47 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 81 46 68 44 / 50 70 0 0 BYV 81 48 65 45 / 60 80 0 0 MKO 79 50 69 52 / 50 20 0 0 MIO 79 45 63 46 / 40 0 0 0 F10 81 50 71 52 / 20 10 0 0 HHW 82 58 78 57 / 0 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ AVIATION.....07