National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTWC
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTWC
Product Timestamp: 2021-10-19 20:06 UTC
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120 FXUS65 KTWC 192008 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 106 PM MST Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS..High pressure will bring a strong warming trend the second half of the week with dry conditions through the weekend. Another system will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure aloft will build back over the region in the wake of a system that passed north of the area last night and early this morning. This system brought a brief drop in temperatures for today, but expect the high pressure ridge to result in a quick warming trend through at least Friday. Projected high temperatures should peak Friday about 2 to 4 degrees above normal. Thereafter, another noticeable drop in daytime temperatures can be anticipated over the weekend into early next week. Latest ensembles favored a weather system entering the western United States late in the weekend into early next week. Several of GEFS and CMC members favored a deeper system which would translate to colder temperatures, about 6 to 8 degrees below normal on Tuesday. Along with the colder temperatures, expect some breezy conditions and a chance of showers mainly north and northeast of Tucson late Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds 6-8kft AGL. SFC winds southwesterly 6-10kts with occasional gusts around 18kts. SFC winds diminishing this evening and remaining below 12kts tomorrow. Aviation not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A quiet and dry period of weather is expected through the week as high pressure brings another warming trend. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 kts the rest of the week, with some gustiness early next week as another system passes north of us. Expect seasonal humidity levels in the teens to lower 20s for afternoon Min RHs and good overnight recoveries (generally 40-60%). && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson