483 
FXUS63 KOAX 191950
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
250 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Main feature per water vapor imagery is closed low migrating 
along the WY/CO border with a mix of precip expanding across WY. 
Surface reflection was centered over western KS with attendant 
boundary extending from southwest NE to northern MN. 

Models in agreement precip activity will begin to spread eastward
out of the NE panhandle/western SD early this evening and expand 
across the rest of SD as well as northern NE. RAP/HRRR time the 
precip to reach the northern CWA toward midnight.SPC has placed us
in a marginal risk for tonight. However, latest RAP suggests 
composite parameters including instability and shear will not be 
maximized over our area until after midnight. At this point 
serious doubt and severe storms will develop. But cannot 
completely rule out some storms accompanied by small hail. 

A few locations may see rainfall amounts of a quarter inch or so by 
events end Wednesday afternoon. But overall, expect amounts to 
generally range from 0.05" to 0.10".

Otherwise, the air mass filling in behind the exiting system will 
noticeable cool down Wednesday and Thursday. Dry period then from
Wednesday night through Saturday. Models still hinting precip 
chances will return Saturday night through Sunday ahead of a 
system ejecting from the central Rockies. Have noted that if the 
latest GFS/CMC solutions verify, next weekends storms may be more 
intense than previously thought. 
 
Wed - mid 50s/lower 60s 
Thu - mid/upper 50s 
Fri - low 60s 
Sat - low/mid 60s 
Sun - mid 60s/low 70s
Mon -upper 60s/low 70s
Tue - mid 70s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Current satellite showing clear skies over the region. LLWS threat
will be an issue at all terminals overnight. As for KOFK, a storm
system moving through the region tonight will be the focus for 
TSRA activity mainly over SD tonight with a chance a few storms 
may penetrate into northeast NE. As of now though, do not believe 
any storms will push far enough south to affect KOFK. However, 
appears that MVFR cigs will move into KOFK toward 12z and prevail 
the remainder of the morning. 


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...DEE