155 
FXUS63 KBIS 191707
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1207 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

The forecast for today remains on track. Tweaked sky cover grids a
bit, with the north showing signs of the BKN-OVC cloud deck
scattering out, and with clouds persisting south. 

UPDATE Issued at 953 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Cloudy conditions all locations across western and central North
Dakota, with the exception the northwest. Overall the forecast
remains in good shape for today. Tweaked temperatures a bit,
mainly cooling a few degrees with cloud cover likely through the
day along with cooler air moving into the region. 

UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Cold front now working through the far southern James River
Valley. Low clouds have quickly developed in the wake of the
front. For early morning update main change was to adjust cloud
cover with current timing. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Current surface analysis places low over northwest Ontario with 
cold front stretching off to the southwest across the Dakotas, 
while high settles through the Prairie Provinces behind the front.
Winds becoming northerly and gusty behind the front, which is now
oriented from near Grand Forks southeastward to near Linton. 
Upper level analysis places upper low over northern Utah.

For today, a much cooler day is on tap as cold air settles into
the area in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Winds will
be northerly and a bit gusty. During the morning, will continue
the potential for patchy fog over the higher terrain of the
southwest with the cooler air intersecting some moisture. 

Tonight, aforementioned upper low will scoot just south of the
western South Dakota/Nebraska border then meander towards the
east-northeast to along the central part of the border overnight.
Expect weather to remain dry during the evening, though some 
chances start to push into far southern North Dakota late. With
that said, surface high to the north settling into the area will
keep a lid on how far north precipitation will be able to go. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Upper low continues to scoot to the east through the day
Wednesday, pushing over the Iowa/Minnesota border by evening. This
will bring precipitation chances to south central North Dakota 
into the James River Valley in the morning, with chances gradually
diminishing in the afternoon. Still some question as to how far
north and west the precipitation chances really can go with the
settling in surface high. Chilly temperatures expected Wednesday
night with the high settling on in, with most locations dipping
into the lower to mid 20s. 

Mainly quiet weather expected through the rest of the work week
with northwest flow over the area. The southwest may push into the
50s for highs, 40s elsewhere. 

A variety of systems off the west coast are expected to shift
upper level flow southwest for the weekend into the start of next
week, resulting in occasional precipitation chances. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Widespread MVFR with localized IFR ceilings persist across 
western and central North Dakota early this afternoon. Ceilings 
will improve this afternoon over northwest and north central 
North Dakota, with gradual improvement over southwest North 
Dakota this evening. Low ceilings will remain through the TAF 
period over south central North Dakota into the James River 
Valley. Gusty northerly winds will continue through the day in the
wake of the cold front, diminishing over most locations this 
evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH