AFOS product AFDALY
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Product Timestamp: 2021-10-19 16:40 UTC

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FXUS61 KALY 191640
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1240 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring dry weather into early 
Thursday with a gradual warming trend. Our next system will move
across the region late Thursday into Friday with a round of 
rain showers. Cooler air then returns for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 1240 PM EDT, upper-level ridging and surface
high pressure will continue to build across the region this
afternoon with partly to mostly sunny and dry conditions 
continuing. As expected, winds have picked up out of the west to
northwest with gusts mainly in the 25-35 mph range. Highs are 
on track to reach the 50s in the higher elevations to the lower 
to mid- 60s in the valleys.

With a light westerly breeze continuing into the nighttime 
hours under variable cloudiness, low temperatures will not be as
low as this morning with values in the lower 50s along the 
valleys (40s higher elevations).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday, the H500 heights deamplify or flatten out over the 
region. Isobars are expected to loosen some as the aforementioned 
upper low moves further away from the region. Additionally, 
mixing/Xfer momentum heights are not expected to rise as high as on 
Tuesday. As a result, winds could be breezy at times on Wednesday, 
just not as breezy as on Tuesday. Expect for west-northwest winds to 
range between 5-10 kts with gusts as high as 20-25 kts. Again, the 
favored areas of the highest wind speeds/gusts will be from the 
Mohawk Valley into the Capital District into the Berkshires. 

It will be another dry and tranquil day under mostly skies amid flat 
ridging overhead. West winds will continue to advect in warmer air 
into the region. That said, expect for temperatures to be 
unseasonably warm with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 
70s along the valleys (upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher 
elevations). Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night will be mild 
as well with values in the upper 40s to lower 50s. 

On Thursday, a 1008 hpa mid-latitude cyclone will be approaching 
from the Central U.S. Winds will shift out of the south ahead of the 
storm system. With the cold front associated with the storm system 
still west of the area Thursday afternoon, it should be another 
unseasonably warm day with high temperatures forecast to climb into 
the upper 60s to lower 70s (upper 50s to lower 60s higher 
elevations). As clouds thicken and lower in elevation, rain showers 
will overspread the region from northwest to southeast Thursday 
afternoon into Thursday night. Thursday night looks to be the 
timeframe where the rain will be most widespread over the area. Rain 
rates and QPF values alike look to be light. QPF totals by Friday 
morning are forecast to range between one to three tenths of an 
inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Friday, our region will be located in the wake of a surface 
frontal boundary but still downstream of an approaching upper level 
trough over the Great Lakes. West-southwest flow will dominate at 
all levels ahead of the advancing upper level energy.  It should be 
dry, as we will be caught between the best forcing.  While temps 
will be somewhat cooler and less humid than Thursday, there won't be 
a large drop in temps, as the cooler temps will still be located off 
to the west.  Daytime temps should reach the mid to upper 60s for 
valley areas, with 50s for the hills and mountains. 

Over the weekend, the large upper level trough will be moving 
towards the Northeast. Despite that the core of the upper level low 
may still remain just to our north, there will be significantly 
lower height/temps aloft that will make for much cooler temps for 
the weekend.  Daytime temps will only be in the 40s and 50s, with 
30s at night. 

Some models continue to show a wave of low pressure developing along 
the front offshore, which could be close enough to bring some light 
rain to the region.  However, some models continue to show this far 
enough offshore, so will keep POPs fairly low at this time.  Even 
without the coastal wave, some showers will be possible over the 
weekend, thanks to the cyclonic flow in place.  This will be 
especially true for areas north/west of the Capital Region, as some 
lake-enhancement will be possible.  With the much cooler temps 
aloft, can't rule out some wet snowflakes mixing across the western 
Adirondacks at times as well. Skies should be fairly cloudy through 
the weekend thanks to the cyclonic flow and cool temps aloft.

For early next week, temps will continue to be chilly, as the upper 
level low slowly departs off to the east.  The threat for 
instability/cyclonic flow showers should diminish, with skies 
becoming partly to mostly clear.  Daytime temps will continue to be 
in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with overnight lows ranging from the 
upper 20s to mid 30s. This will allow for a widespread frost 
for most areas, with a freeze possible as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level low is located over eastern Canada and will continue to 
slowly move eastward today. 

Through the day, VFR conditions are expected for all sites with just 
mid level clouds around, thanks to some lingering moisture on the 
backside of the departing upper level low. Clouds may wind up being 
few-sct this morning, but may become sct-bkn for later this 
afternoon into this evening. 

West to northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts for all sites. 
A few higher gusts are possible in the late morning or early 
afternoon hours, especially at KALB.  

Winds will somewhat decrease for this evening into tonight, but will 
still remain elevated around 10 kts. The sct-bkn mid level clouds 
this evening will start to become few-sct at 4-5 kft for the 
overnight hours, allowing for VFR conditions to continue.  With the 
breeze and dry low-levels in place, no worries for any radiational 
fog for tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather issues are not expected over the next few days.

Today and Wednesday will feature dry and breezy weather conditions. 
Temperatures will continue to warm up from near seasonable levels 
today to warmer than normal levels Wednesday and Thursday. The 
weather pattern is then expected to become more unsettled Thursday 
into the weekend with periods of rain showers. Temperatures are 
expected to undergo a cool down Thursday into the weekend with 
values returning to cooler than normal levels Sunday into early next 
week. 

Minimum relative humidity (RH) values today will range from 40-60% 
with the lowest values located over the mid-Hudson Valley. Tonight, 
max RH values will range between 85-100%. On Wednesday, minimum 
relative humidity values will range from 45-75%. Wednesday night, 
max relative humidity values will range from 85-100%. On Thursday, 
minimum relative humidity values will range between 50-75%. 

Winds today will be out of the west-northwest 10-15 kts with gusts 
ranging between 20-30 kts. The highest gusts will be located along a 
corridor from the Mohawk Valley, into the Capital District and into 
the Berkshires of western Massachusetts. Westerly winds will abate 
tonight at 5-10 kts with gusts as high as 15-20 kts (greatest values 
over the higher terrain). On Wednesday, west-northwest winds will 
range from 5-15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. Again, the favored 
corridor of highest wind gust speeds will be from the Mohawk Valley 
into the Capital District into the Berkshires.  Wednesday night, 
winds will subside become very light to calm with magnitudes less 
than 5 kts. On Thursday, a southerly wind component will develop 
with magnitudes between 5-15 kts. Winds could gust as high as 20 kts 
(most favored over the Capital District).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological issues or concerns are expected over the next five 
to seven days. 

Today and Wednesday will feature dry and breezy weather conditions. 
The weather pattern is then expected to become more unsettled 
Thursday into the weekend with periods of rain showers. 
Precipitation rates are expected to be light overall through the 
period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed 
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the 
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Evbuoma/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Evbuoma
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Evbuoma
HYDROLOGY...Evbuoma