781 
FXUS61 KCLE 191626
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1226 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the area through Wednesday, followed 
by a low pressure system and cold front on Thursday. A trough may 
linger across the area into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected through Wednesday as high pressure 
persists across the region. Above-average temperatures in the lower 
70s are forecast for today and on Wednesday as the ridge continues 
to build, resulting in pleasant weather conditions under mostly 
sunny skies. Low temperatures will drop into mid to upper 40s 
tonight under mostly clear skies and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quick moving upper trough axis/surface frontal system tandem to push 
in Wednesday night, first with some warm sector upper level driven 
shower potential over the western zones of the CWA. Carrying a low 
chance of thunder with this, better chances after sunrise, but 
overall confidence in the thunder aspect is on the lower side right 
now. Could be a struggle to get the necessary instability off the 
boundary layer, but have some speed shear in the column. System 
makes a speedy exit towards Atlantic Canada, but will pull another 
cold front through Thursday night after the first one passes 
Thursday afternoon. Another weak trough axis passes just south of 
Lake Erie Friday, and another Friday night slightly stronger, so the 
POP forecast is tough to clear for any length of time in the short 
term. Add on top of that a renewed fetch off Lake Erie in parallel 
low level northwesterly flow and there will be additional chances 
from lake effect north the far eastern zones. Outside of thunder 
downpours from the first part of the short term, the QPF in the 
forecast overall is on the lower side. Meanwhile, a chillier airmass 
settles into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Likely to get another cold front dropping in across the southern 
lakes Saturday, and possibly late Saturday night, but the details of 
the evolution of the closed upper low over eastern Canada seem to be 
in flux for right now. Do not want to get too hung up in the 
details, but the overall theme remains the same, that a fall like 
airmass will dominate the region in the extended forecast with some 
low impact shower activity with the fronts, or possibly lake effect 
in the primarily northwesterly low level flow. Expecting high 
temperatures in the 50s only, with some upper 30s for overnight 
lows. Will be watching for the first frost of the season, but may 
have a hard time clearing out the sky enough. Again, details need to 
sort themselves out in coming model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions across the TAF sites with VFR to persist through
the TAF period. Southwesterly winds will persist around 10 
knots this afternoon. The highest winds will be at KERI with 
gusts near 20 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and isolated thunderstorms
Wednesday night into Thursday. Non-VFR likely in lower ceilings
Thursday night into Friday. Non-VFR may persist Friday into 
Saturday with lower ceilings and scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to our south will drift eastward towards the SE coast, 
while low pressure strengthens over the central plains pushing into 
the southern Great Lakes. The result is a quick turn around in windy 
conditions developing later today into tonight, southwest 15-20kts 
gusting to 25kts. Expecting wave heights to increase, and the 
eastern lake zones to become exposed to the longer fetch. Small 
Craft Advisory will be needed with wave heights Lake County to Erie 
County PA in the 3 to 5 foot range once again. Winds subside 
Wednesday afternoon before increasing again Thursday ahead of the 
next cold front. This passage will switch the wind to the northwest 
for an extended period into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Saunders
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...26