346 
FXUS63 KFGF 191132
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Low stratus has now overspread northeast ND and is moving southeast
into northwest MN and southeast ND. The cold front is near Fargo
and should continue to slide southeast through midday, though it
may still briefly stall. Depending on the timing of the front this
afternoon and cloud cover highs may still be well above average in
our far southeast (mid/upper 60s). Elsewhere, temperatures may
struggle to recover in the postfrontal air mass where low stratus
persists. Wind have increased and there are gusts around 35 mph
being reported in the Devils Lake Basin. Higher gusts are still
possible as the CAA increases this morning along and west of the 
RRV and gusts to 40 mph are possible as mentioned in previous 
discussion. Update made to sky cover and near term trends.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Short term sensible weather impacts are related to a strong cold 
front that will bring a period of windy conditions today, and 
likelihood of wetting rains late tonight through Wednesday afternoon 
in our south.

The initial wind shift associated with the cold front is over the 
northern RRV and Devils Lake basin spreading southeast, while the 
stronger CAA is offset in Canada (where low associated low stratus 
has develop and is spreading south). This may stall briefly creating 
a window for mild high temps in the 60s across our southeast (mainly 
west central MN), before the main trough starts to kick east. There 
is a signal for windy conditions to develop as the strong CAA spreads 
down the RRV and over eastern ND this morning and enhanced momentum 
transfer due to down valley northerly flow could result in wind 
gusts to 40 mph for a brief period this morning. 925 MB winds are 
generally in the 25-35kt range, and current mixing heights do not 
tap into higher winds, and confidence is that winds remain under 
advisory criteria (further supported by a lack of higher signal in 
latest ensemble guidance or CAMs wind gusts). 

There is still a strong consensus on the track of the upper low over 
southern SD , and at least some deformation/positive frontogenesis 
tracking through our southern CWA (generally along/south of I-94), 
though the more organized forcing may remain south along with deeper 
moisture advection. A combination of good forcing, duration, and weak 
instability could still support moderate to locally heavy rain 
totals. Rainfall probs from NBM and HREF PMM still favor amounts in 
the 0.1 to 0.25" range, with 30-40% probs for 0.5" or higher which 
would occur over a more localized area. Substantially drier air in 
the northerly flow north of the closed low still creates a 
situation where precip will be limited in its northern extent. 
This also lowers confidence that mixed precip would occur as colder 
(and very dry) profiles move in. I still wouldn't rule out a few 
flurries on the back side of the precip region during the colder 
part of the morning hours, but impacts are limited (especially due to 
warmer ground temps). 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Long term period begins with a long stretch of dry and cold weather 
to finish out the work week. An upper ridge begins to amplify over 
the Rockies while a deep upper low spins over the Hudson bay. Low 
temperatures in the lower 20s will bring chilly mornings on both 
Thursday and Friday. This period will see PWAT values less than 0.25 
inch, so any waves rotating around the Hudson low will not bring any 
precipitation.

The upper ridge translates into the upper Great Lakes by Sunday 
morning, and SW flow aloft into the northern tier will bring chances 
for some precipitation from late Saturday night through Sunday. 
Confidence of any impactful weather is low as NAEFS/GEFS moisture 
signals are about average, with a slight increase in signal by noon 
Sunday. The SW flow aloft pattern does bring the potential for more 
active weather, with low POPs in for both Sunday night through 
Monday night. By Tuesday, the upper low/trough moves into the upper 
midwest while PWAT values begin to finally climb over 1 inch, 
increasing confidence for the next best chance for wide spread 
showers as temps will be in the 40s Monday night and 50s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Low stratus with MVFR ceilings is over northeast ND behind a cold
front and should eventually overspread all of eastern ND and
northwest MN this morning. This does eventually slide southeast
and VFR should return late afternoon or evening further north,
though low conditions may linger through the night in southeast 
ND and west central MN. Northerly winds are also increasing behind
this front, with the strongest gusts through early evening. Rain 
chances should increase after the current TAF period in southeast 
ND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...Spender
AVIATION...DJR