715 
FXUS64 KLZK 191115 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
615 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.AVIATION...
Updated for the 12Z terminals...

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be
southerly with sustained speeds generally 10 knots or less during
the day and light and variable at night. Expect some passing
altocu or cirrus. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
Surface analysis shows high pressure over the Appalachians, with 
a frontal boundary about to move off the Rockies. Between this, 
there's an extensive area of mid and high clouds extending from 
northern Mexico into the Mid Mississippi Valley. 

The aforementioned mid and high clouds will move eastward today.
Southerly flow will keep maximum temperatures above average, but
the increased mid and high clouds should help counteract the warm
advection and keep readings from hitting 80. 

The clouds will move east and diminish late this afternoon and
tonight. Frontal boundary moving off the Rockies now will move
into the region Wednesday Night. As I've said the last few days, 
there will not be significant/deep moisture ahead of the 
boundary, but uplift associated with the front should allow for at
least isolated showers/storms. 

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
The long term PD looks to initiate in the wake of a potent 
shortwave H500 trof. Through the day Thurs, a tailing cold frnt is
expected to move across the state from N/W to S/E. Have kept low-
end PoPs widespread along the bndry as it makes its way through 
the region, w/ guidance suggesting that the incoming frnt wl not 
clear the state, but rather stall over the AR/LA border region. In
the wake of the frnt, sfc high pressure wl become centered over 
the AR/MO border Thurs, keeping winds out of the north to 
northeast, and allowing for drier air to overspread the FA, for a 
brief stint as Srly flow looks to resume shortly thereafter. 

Through the day Fri, sfc high pressure wl shift E/wrd and the 
previously stalled bndry should lift N/wrd, resuming as a warm frnt. 
PoPs wl lkly stay confined to movement of the frnt through the 
weekend. Over the course of the weekend, H500 ridging wl begin to 
amplify over the mid-south ahead of an approaching longwave trof 
over the Wrn US. The associated sfc mass response wl support a 
deepening sfc low over the Cntrl Plains, and intensifying broad 
reach of cyclonic sfc flow. This wl overspread Srly winds to the 
Natural State, and after an extended PD of pleasantly dry and cool 
condns, daily high and low temps as well as sfc moisture wl be on 
the upward swing, w/ afternoon highs creeping back into the upper 
70s and low 80s for much of the state through the remainder of the 
fcst PD. 

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...57