793 
FXUS61 KCLE 190523
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
123 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the area through Wednesday before a 
low pressure system brings a cold front across the area Thursday. 
High pressure will return for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Good radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight as high
pressure expands to the north and east. Winds are light which
have allowed temperatures to drop quickly this evening. Some of
the coolest locations as of 9 PM are 41 at Ravenna and 42 at 
Wooster. Expanded the mention of patchy frost to a few more 
counties in NE Ohio that tend to have some of the cooler
valleys.  

Previous discussion...Quiet and average temperatures will 
persist through Tuesday night as high pressure builds across the
eastern U.S. Lingering clouds in NE OH and NW PA will continue 
to gradually diminish this evening, allowing for clear skies 
across the area through Tuesday afternoon. Scattered high clouds
will move in for Tuesday night, but will not result in any 
precipitation. High temperatures will climb into low 70s for 
western counties and the upper 60s for the eastern counties. 
Overnight lows will dip into the mid to low 40s tonight with a 
chance of reaching the upper 30s in areas with the greatest 
radiational cooling. Tuesday night will only drop into the upper
40s to low 50s as cloud cover will keep the area a bit warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Wednesday, an upper-level ridge will be centered over the area 
with surface high pressure located south of the area with a high 
pressure ridge extended north across the Great Lakes region. 
Wednesday will easily be the warmest day of the forecast with most 
areas getting to at least 70. That all changes down the road 
though...

By Wednesday night, an upper-level trough approaches the area, 
moving eastward across the southern Great Lakes Thursday into 
Thursday night. At the surface, this will result in a low of around 
1005 mb moving east from lower Michigan Thursday morning to southern 
Quebec by Thursday night. A cold front associated with this low will 
move east across our region during the daytime Thursday. This will 
result in an area of rain showers moving east across the area ahead 
of the cold front very late Wednesday night through Thursday 
evening. A belt of higher dew points in the upper 50s will support 
MUCAPE of around 500 J/kg, resulting in isolated embedded 
thunderstorms. Strong mid-level westerlies will create bulk wind 
shear of 50-60 knots, which could potentially support severe 
thunderstorms, though that potential is severely limited by the 
marginal amount of instability. If low-level advection and/or 
daytime heating is stronger than currently forecast, we'll have to 
keep an eye on severe potential for Thursday afternoon, particularly 
for the eastern half of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A second reinforcing cold front will move south across Lake Erie and 
northern Ohio late Thursday night into Friday. This will bring much 
colder temperatures to the region, along with lake effect rain 
showers Friday through at least Saturday afternoon. Below normal 
temperatures are expected through the long term with highs in the 
upper 50s to low 60s. Patchy frost may start to become possible 
Sunday and Monday morning as some models are forecasts low downs 
into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions across the TAF sites with VFR to persist through
the TAF period. Light winds will persist into the morning,
before increasing to around 10 knots and becoming southwest
later this afternoon. The highest winds will be possible at ERI
with gusts near 20 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. Non-VFR likely in lower ceilings Thursday night into 
Friday. Non-VFR may persist Friday into Saturday with lower
ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridge continues to build over Lake Erie today, 
remaining over the area through Wednesday afternoon. As high 
pressure builds in, northwest winds (and associated waves) will 
diminish through this evening. For this reason, have allowed the 
Small Craft Advisory to expire. As the high pressure ridge axis 
shifts to the east, winds become west/southwest late tonight. Wind 
speeds approach 20 knots Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday 
morning, so another Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the 
eastern half of Lake Erie. There's a bit of a lull Wednesday 
afternoon through Wednesday night before wind speeds increase to 20-
30 knots ahead of an approaching low pressure system. That low 
pressure system and associated cold front move east across the Great 
Lakes region Wednesday night through Thursday night. Wind speeds of 
at least 20 knots on Lake Erie are possible through Thursday night 
and thus, another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed again.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/KEC
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Saunders