534 
FXUS63 KMPX 190345 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1045 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) 
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

The key messages are that seasonably warm air will continue today 
into Tuesday. Then a significant pattern change will bring 
widespread rain and a few thunderstorms on Wednesday. This will be 
followed by much cooler temperatures on Thursday through the weekend
with highs only in the 40s.

TODAY and TUESDAY - Clear skies, southerly winds, and dry air 
resulted in afternoon highs warming quickly, so have continued with 
the previous forecast's methodology of going toward the high end of 
guidance. Afternoon humidity is in the 20s across western Minnesota, 
with breezy southerly wind.

Will follow that same logic for bumping up temperatures tomorrow, as 
Tuesday highs will once again be in the 80s. A boundary will set up 
across the region, and this will lead to lighter winds and higher 
humidity as the moisture begins to pool ahead of it in advance of 
the next weather system, but could see lower humidity to the south
along I-90.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) 
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

TUESDAY NIGHT through WEDNESDAY NIGHT - A strong upper level system 
that is currently located Great Basin will move toward the Upper 
Midwest on Tuesday and arrive Tuesday night. The aforementioned
boundary in place across the forecast area will take shape as a warm
front. Warm air advection along and over this boundary will result 
in clouds and precipitation developing Wednesday. 

Confidence is fairly high that everyone will see measurable 
rainfall on Wednesday. Forecast soundings show anywhere from 1000 to
1500 J/kg of MUCAPE above this warm front, so thunder certainly 
seems likely, and there is a chance that a few storms could be 
stronger and produce some hail. Will have to continue to monitor to 
see if this trend of higher instability continues, but as of now the 
Storm Prediction Center only has a general thunder outlook across the
region. This system will exit the region Wednesday night, and some 
lingering rain should could continue after dark.

THURSDAY through MONDAY - Cold air advection will follow for
Thursday. Winds will be northwest and highs will struggle to reach 
the 50s. This cooler weather will continue through the weekend. 
Looking ahead to next week, there is some uncertainty so have 
continued with the blended guidance. Overall expect dry weather into 
Sunday, with small chances for rain early next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Periods of FEW-SCT high clouds, otherwise clear skies continue
tonight. South winds will turn northwest then northeast behind a cold
front across western MN Tue afternoon and evening across eastern MN.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...MVFR/-SHRA. Chc IFR. Wind NNE 10-15 kts. 
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NNW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...Borghoff