899 
FXUS62 KGSP 091834
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
234 PM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture lingers over portions of the Carolina piedmont tonight as 
a surface low pressure center moves north along the Carolina Coast. 
Dry high pressure builds in on Sunday and remains in place through 
the week with warming temperatures. A cold front is forecast to 
arrive at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM: Strong high pressure is present over New England and
the Canadian Maritimes. An upper trough extends from the eastern
Great Lakes across the Carolinas. Sfc low pressure accordingly is
present off the NC coast, on the periphery of the high; it will help
drive breezy northeasterly winds this afternoon across much of the
area. A stubborn layer of low-based stratocu is expected to persist
most of the day over the eastern half of the FA, a manifestation
of midlevel subsidence inversion and abundant moisture beneath
it. A few showers are present along the edges of this airmass
and near the east-facing Blue Ridge. The best chances will remain
there thru the afternoon, via differential heating and the terrain
enhancement. Still looks like a stray thunderstorm could fire up
as well, with lapse rates decent aside from the subsident layer.

A drying trend will continue tonight as heights rise from the west,
associated with sharp ridge building in behind the aforementioned
trough. That said, temperature profiles aloft don't look to change
much, and easterly flow will continue in the low levels. Thus patchy
stratus or stratocu may linger under the inversion, particularly in
the east. Even if cloud cover remains sparse, winds should keep the
PBL mixed enough to preclude fog for most of the Piedmont. Mountain
valleys and the foothills however look sheltered enough for a patchy
fog mention. Generally sunnier skies are expected for Sunday as
drying continues; slight backing of PBL winds implies diminishing
moisture flux there to boot. Max temps will be warmer overall,
particularly in the areas affected by the greater cloud cover today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Saturday: An upper level ridge becomes dominant over 
the SE CONUS thru the period. However, an offshore low, perhaps 
becoming tropical in nature, will persist into Mon and maintain e/ly 
moisture flux toward the FA. The latest GFS/NAM soundings show too 
much downward motion for a sigfnt precip chance, yet morning fog and 
low-level StCu will be possible Mon morning and to a lesser extent 
Tue morning mainly across the ern zones. With good afternoon insol 
expected both days, max temps will have no problem reaching a few 
degrees abv normal. Mins will also hover abt 5 degrees abv normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday: Little change was made to the ext fcst. The 
models still bring a weak cold front to the NC mtns Tue night, 
however, the overall forcing remains low and less moisture is 
available than was progged on previous model runs. Thus, have kept 
the fcst dry during this timeframe. A 590 dm upper ridge reasserts 
itself over the area Wed, which will remain in control of the 
pattern until a deep Midwest trof swings a cold front toward the NC 
mtns Fri night. Plan views show decent sbCAPE ahead of this feature 
for the time of day and enuf confidence is had to introduce isol 
general thunder thru the overnight. With PWATS persisting within 
normal climo values, expect good heating to keep max and min temps 
up abt 5 degrees abv normal each day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A persistent weak inversion has limited
mixing so far today, while low-level moisture is abundant. These
conditions are associated with an easterly flow regime driven
by offshore sfc low and high pressure to our northeast. Stratocu
layer at MVFR level is widespread across the region, with KCLT/KHKY
still seeing restrictive cigs at issuance time. At least brief
return to MVFR can't be ruled out at the other sites, but most
likely they will remain VFR. A few SHRA will develop, especially
near the east-facing Blue Ridge Escarpment, but chances at all TAF
sites are small enough to omit. Breezy NE winds with occasional
low-end gusts. The pattern will remain largely unchanged tonight;
cloud bases are likely to lower to MVFR even if they are too sparse
to form a cig. Seeing a weak signal for valley fog and IFR stratus
so have retained TEMPO LIFR at KAVL. Drier profiles tomorrow under
VFR and somewhat lighter winds.

Outlook: Relatively settled conditions will return to the area for
a few days. However, abundant low-level moisture will persist,
and low cigs/fog may occur again Sunday night, at least across
portions of the NC Piedmont. But otherwise, should be dry and VFR
Sunday and heading into early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...Wimberley