329 
FXUS61 KBUF 091824
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
224 PM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening upper level trough will bring a few showers to Western 
NY through late this afternoon before mainly dry weather returns 
tonight through early next week. Unseasonably warm temperatures will 
continue through all of next week, peaking on Monday and Tuesday 
with near record highs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid level closed low over the central Great Lakes will continue to 
open up into a wave and weaken as it moves northeast into Ontario 
and western Quebec through tonight. The southern and eastern end of 
the trough axis will clip the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and 
evening, with large scale forcing washing out with time as the 
trough weakens and moves well north of the area. 

Showers will continue across Western NY through mid afternoon within 
a region of DPVA and moisture transport ahead of a convectively 
augmented shortwave. Forcing will then quickly weaken during the 
late afternoon and early evening, allowing showers to taper off and 
mostly end. Meanwhile areas east of the Genesee Valley will
remain dry. Later tonight through Sunday morning the weak 
remnants of the mid level trough will drift east across the 
area. Most of the remaining showers will focus across southern 
and eastern Ontario, with nothing more than a few isolated 
showers left across NY. Otherwise morning clouds on Sunday will 
give way to some partial sunshine as deep moisture decreases 
with the exit of the mid level shortwave.

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal. Lows tonight 
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s on the lake plains, and low to 
mid 50s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country. Highs 
Sunday will reach the mid 70s on the lake plains of Western NY with 
an added boost of southeast downslope flow, and mid to upper 60s 
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Lewis County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...Near Record Temperatures During This Period...

An amplifying upper level ridge will quickly build over New England 
Sunday night, allowing dry and fair weather to prevail through 
Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday evening and Tuesday night, a 
weakening upper level trough and associated weak surface cold front 
will cross the area from west to east, bringing shower chances 
through the overnight hours.

Temperatures will be abnormally warm through the period. Daytime 
highs on Monday in particular will even approach record 
levels...with 850mb temps in the 15-16C range and weak downsloping 
SE winds, temperatures may exceed the 80 degree mark on the lower 
terrain across WNY, with mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Otherwise, 
expect temperatures to average 10-15 degrees above normal throughout 
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No break in the above normal temperatures anticipated even as we 
head into the weekend.

Shortwave and associated cool front passing through the Lower Lakes 
will exit by midday Wednesday, with most shower activity ending from 
west to east. Mid-level ridge and weak sfc high will then likely 
bring about progressively drier conditions in the afternoon into 
Wednesday evening. 

Wednesday night, dry and quiet weather expected across all of the 
eastern Great Lakes. Clouds will then increase late as the system 
over the Upper Midwest begins to influence the region. 

Thursday, low pressure over the Upper Midwest will track into Canada 
nudging its attendant warm front through the Lower Lakes. As it does 
so, it will introduce a chance of a few showers but most locations 
will likely remain dry. After that (Friday/Saturday), it will all 
depend on the trough to our west as it advances east and then nudges 
a cold frontal boundary into the region. At this point there is way 
too much uncertainty to add any thing more than chance POPs for
Friday and Saturday. 

Otherwise, daytime highs will generally range from the upper 60s to 
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weakening mid level trough will continue to produce showers across 
Western NY through mid afternoon, with the showers then tapering off 
and ending during the late afternoon and early evening as the trough 
weakens further. Most areas will remain VFR through this evening. 
The one exception will be the higher terrain of the western Southern 
Tier, where areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS will continue. The low clouds and 
MVFR/IFR will linger across the Southern Tier overnight through 
Sunday morning before improving by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise VFR 
is expected for the rest of the area tonight through Sunday with 
periods of VFR clouds.

Outlook... 

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southeast winds will continue this afternoon through 
Sunday, but this wind direction will place the higher wave action in 
offshore and Canadian waters. South to southeast winds will continue 
through the first half of next week, with winds and waves expected 
to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock