843 
FXUS66 KLOX 091026
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
326 AM PDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...08/806 PM.

A couple of inside sliders moving through the area will bring
gusty northerly winds across the area through Tuesday, especially
for southern Santa Barbara County and the Interstate 5 corridor.
Temperatures will warm some through Sunday then cool back down
through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...09/325 AM.

Skies are clear (Friday's cold front wiped out the marine
inversion) save for some clouds over the San Gabriel vly created 
by upslope SW flow. Gradients are onshore to the east and offshore
from the north. The offshore flow and sunny skies will combine to
bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to the area today. Despite the
warming max temps will come in about 6 degrees blo normal today.

An inside slider will ride down the CA/NV border this afternoon
and evening. It will set up a quick hitting north wind event that
will transition to a northeast wind event as the E/W gradient
flips to offshore. There will be enough upper support and sfc push
to bring another round of advisory level level gusts to the
western portion of the SBA south coast and possibly to the I-5
corridor.

Sunday will be another sunny day and also a warm one. The offshore
flow from the north and the east will bring 15 to 25 mph winds the
usual Santa Ana prone areas of LA and VTA counties as well as the
Santa Lucias in SLO County. Weak ridging will bring 583 dam hgts
to the area. These hgts, copious sunshine and the offshore flow 
will all combine to bring 5 to 10 degrees of warming to almost all
of the area. The coasts and vlys will see above normal temps will
plenty of 80s in the vlys. The interior will remain a few degrees
blo normal due to the cool air advection from the interior.

A colder inside slider will move down the CA/NV border on Monday.
It will bring just enough moisture to create a slight chc of a mtn
shower in the afternoon across the eastern San Gabriels. Otherwise
it will be a day of cooling as hgts fall to a chilly 566 dam by
sunset. Most max temps will fall 4 to 8 degrees. The one exception
will be the SBA south coast where the north winds will bring
several degrees of warming.

It will be a windy evening ans offshore flow, upper support and
cold air advection (which will drive the upper level winds down to
the sfc) combine to bring high end wind advisory gusts to the
SBA/VTA/LA mtns, the SBA south coast and Antelope Vly. Warning
level gusts are not out of the question for the I-5 corridor.
Advisory level gusts will also be possible through the Santa
Clarita Vly and the western portion of the San Fernando Vly.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...09/325 AM.

Tuesday will feature a quick transition to NE flow shortly after
sunrise and another Santa Ana will set up. This one will be
stronger than the previous ones and a few advisories will likely
be needed across the LA mtns and vlys. There will also be a decent
offshore push across the Central Coast and advisory level gusts
may also occur there. Not even the offshore flow will be able to
overcome the humongous amount of cold air advection and max temps
will fall 3 to 6 degrees and perhaps 5 to 10 degrees in the
interior. 

Not much excitement on tap from Wed to Fri. NW flow Wed will
transition to a weak ridge on Thursday and then a stronger ridge 
on Friday. There will be weak offshore flow in the morning both 
from the north and the east. It should not produce much in the way
of winds but should be enough to keep much if not all of the area
free from low clouds. Three consecutive days of warming will 
bring most areas to or even above normal by Friday. By Friday much
or the vlys and even the interior cstl sections will see max 
temps in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...09/0603Z.

At 0402Z at KLAX, there was a moist layer up to 4100 feet. The 
top of the inversion was at 5100 feet with a temperature of 11 C.

High confidence in the 06Z TAFs with VFR conditions through the period.
Lower confidence for KSMX due to a 30 percent chance of IFR CIGs 
from 11Z-16Z.

KLAX...High confidence in the 06Z TAF. High confidence that any
east wind component will be under 4kt.

KBUR..High confidence in the 06Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected
thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...08/958 PM.

For the outer waters, good confidence in the current Small Craft
Advisories. Winds are expected to be at Small Craft Advisory 
(SCA) levels for much of these waters until at least late Sunday 
night, along with steep short period seas. Strong gale force 
winds and large, steep dangerous seas will develop over the outer 
waters late Sunday night into Monday morning. With gusts up to 45
knots and seas up to 15 to 20 feet at the peak Monday night, a 
gale watch will likely be issued soon. Winds will likely die down
overnight into Tuesday morning, but steep, high seas will likely
linger into Tuesday. There is a better than 50% chance of SCA 
conditions persisting into Wednesday.

For the inner waters north of Point Sal, there is good confidence
in the current forecast. Wind gusts will be at SCA levels through
late tonight. Winds may be near SCA levels Saturday night, but
there is far better confidence in SCA winds by Sunday afternoon.
Winds should remain strong through Monday, likely reaching gale
force by Monday evening along with large, steep dangerous seas. A
gale watch will probably be needed for Monday evening into Monday
night. High seas and SCA conditions are expected Tuesday. 

For the inner water south of Point Conception, there is moderate to 
high confidence in the current forecast. Lower confidence in
current SCAs, as winds may decrease earlier than forecast.
However, good confidence that another SCA will be needed Saturday
afternoon and again Sunday afternoon for north of Point Mugu, with
the strongest in the Santa Barbara Channel. SCA winds will likely
last into Monday morning for western Santa Barbara Channel before
strong gale force winds move into the region by the evening hours. 
Steep, hazardous seas will accompany the strong winds Sunday 
night through Monday night. Lower confidence in gale force winds
south of Point Mugu Monday evening/night. There is then a 50% 
chance of SCA level wind gusts at times Tuesday and Wednesday as 
well, especially for the Santa Barbara Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).

Widespread moderate to strong northwest to north winds expected 
Monday through Tuesday, including southern Santa Barbara County, 
the I-5 Corridor, and most coastal waters. Downed trees, power 
outages, large surf with strong currents, and dangerous driving 
and boating conditions expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Lund/ASR
MARINE...Phillips/Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Stewart

weather.gov/losangeles