722 
FXUS66 KLOX 090604
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
1104 PM PDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...08/806 PM.

A couple of inside sliders moving through the area will bring
gusty northerly winds across the area through Tuesday, especially
for southern Santa Barbara County and the Interstate 5 corridor.
Temperatures will warm some through Sunday then cool back down
through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...08/818 PM.

***UPDATE***

Some cloud cover still lingers over the LA and Ventura County
mountains and some foothill and valley locations thanks to some
leftover moisture. Clouds should start to clear out overnight as 
dry northerly flow aloft strengthens. However, the north flow may 
bank clouds against the northern mountain slopes through the 
night. The dry flow will also likely prevent marine layer stratus 
formation, keeping the coasts and valleys clear. Although the
latest satellite imagery indicates some patches of stratus trying
to develop near Lompoc, so the Central Coast has a chance to see 
stratus tonight. The main weather story for the next several days 
will be the persistent gusty northerly winds due to multiple 
inside sliders moving through. A SBA-SMX gradient of -3.3 mb 
combined with a bit of upper support and cold air advection is 
giving way to gusty sundowners over the Santa Barbara South Coast 
this evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 3am. Gusts up 
to 45 mph through the passes and canyons across the western 
portion seem reasonable through the night. However, local gusts to
50 mph are possible around Gaviota and Refugio. Winds should also
be gusty through the I-5 corridor and western Antelope Valley 
foothills, but likely under advisory level.

A shortwave trough moves in from the north on Saturday, and with
it taking an inside track no precipitation is expected. However,
some light rain may clip the far northwestern portion of the area
in the morning. Northerly gradients are expected to strengthen and
there will be another round of advisory level sundowners (and
possibly advisory level winds through the I-5 corridor). There 
will be a nice warm up across the board as we see more sunshine
and downsloping, though temperatures will still be very much 
below normal. Overall forecast is in good shape and not planning 
any updates.

***From Previous Discussion***

On Sunday gradients to the east turn lightly offshore but not much
upper support and most winds should be on the light side, except
possibly some gusts to 30 mph across LA/Ventura Counties and the
Santa Lucias in SLO County. The warming trend will continue with a
little boost from the offshore flow and highs expected to be close
to normal levels in most areas except the interior and the NW SLO
County coast.

A cold upper trough expected to move south into Nevada Monday with
strong north to northwest flow behind it. This will maintain, and
likely strengthen the already existing northerly flow and keep it
windy in the same areas as the weekend, but with more widespread
advisory level winds expected late Monday, including the I5 
corridor and possibly even the Central Coast and Santa Clarita 
Valley. Temperatures expected to drop several degrees, most 
notably in the interior which won't have the benefit of any 
downsloping flow to moderate the air mass.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...08/203 PM.

Models today trending more towards a north/northwest wind pattern
Tuesday rather than northeast but that could easily shift again
between now and then. This would mean continued windy conditions
through the I5 corridor, srn SB County, and not as much wind in
the typical Santa Ana favored areas in LA/Ventura Counties.
Probably not much change in temperatures from Monday.

The rest of the week is pretty quiet with a slow warming trend as
as a ridge starts to build over the west coast. Cool overnight
lows under clear skies (marine layer not expected to return until
maybe later in the week at the earliest) and a dry air mass but
slowly warming to near normal by Thursday or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...09/0603Z.

At 0402Z at KLAX, there was a moist layer up to 4100 feet. The 
top of the inversion was at 5100 feet with a temperature of 11 C.

High confidence in the 06Z TAFs with VFR conditions through the period.
Lower confidence for KSMX due to a 30 percent chance of IFR CIGs 
from 11Z-16Z.

KLAX...High confidence in the 06Z TAF. High confidence that any
east wind component will be under 4kt.

KBUR..High confidence in the 06Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected
thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...08/958 PM.

For the outer waters, good confidence in the current Small Craft
Advisories. Winds are expected to be at Small Craft Advisory 
(SCA) levels for much of these waters until at least late Sunday 
night, along with steep short period seas. Strong gale force 
winds and large, steep dangerous seas will develop over the outer 
waters late Sunday night into Monday morning. With gusts up to 45
knots and seas up to 15 to 20 feet at the peak Monday night, a 
gale watch will likely be issued soon. Winds will likely die down
overnight into Tuesday morning, but steep, high seas will likely
linger into Tuesday. There is a better than 50% chance of SCA 
conditions persisting into Wednesday.

For the inner waters north of Point Sal, there is good confidence
in the current forecast. Wind gusts will be at SCA levels through
late tonight. Winds may be near SCA levels Saturday night, but
there is far better confidence in SCA winds by Sunday afternoon.
Winds should remain strong through Monday, likely reaching gale
force by Monday evening along with large, steep dangerous seas. A
gale watch will probably be needed for Monday evening into Monday
night. High seas and SCA conditions are expected Tuesday. 

For the inner water south of Point Conception, there is moderate to 
high confidence in the current forecast. Lower confidence in
current SCAs, as winds may decrease earlier than forecast.
However, good confidence that another SCA will be needed Saturday
afternoon and again Sunday afternoon for north of Point Mugu, with
the strongest in the Santa Barbara Channel. SCA winds will likely
last into Monday morning for western Santa Barbara Channel before
strong gale force winds move into the region by the evening hours. 
Steep, hazardous seas will accompany the strong winds Sunday 
night through Monday night. Lower confidence in gale force winds
south of Point Mugu Monday evening/night. There is then a 50% 
chance of SCA level wind gusts at times Tuesday and Wednesday as 
well, especially for the Santa Barbara Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 645-655-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).

Widespread moderate to strong northwest to north winds expected 
Monday through Tuesday, including southern Santa Barbara County, 
the I-5 Corridor, and most coastal waters. Downed trees, power 
outages, large surf with strong currents, and dangerous driving 
and boating conditions expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Stewart/MW
AVIATION...Lund/ASR
MARINE...Phillips/Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Stewart

weather.gov/losangeles