782 
FXUS62 KKEY 090232
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1032 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - A trough aloft is amplifying as it digs southeastward
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Associated upper
level support is contributing to lower level troughing over the
extreme southeastern United States and a band of showers and
thunderstorms across Central Florida. Closer to home, weak lower
level ridging remains across the Keys and the surface pressure
gradient is supporting light southeasterly breezes. This 
evening's sounding indicated fairly dry air and some inhibition 
layer centered around 800 mb. This has kept showers in check 
through the evening. 

Short Term Update - The upper level trough will continue to dig
southeastwards through the overnight period with the trough axis
draped across the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Central
Florida by morning. A swath of increased lower level moisture 
associated with the upper trough will continue to press 
southeastward but will remain north of our area overnight. The 
lower level ridge and associated lower level dry and stabilizing 
layer will hold on across our area. This along with surface flow 
being light and primarily out of the southeast should ensure rain 
chances will remain slight overnight.

The story becomes much more complicated beyond tonight. The upper
trough will continue to swing southeastward across Florida and 
step into the Atlantic late Saturday. This trough will cut off 
through the remainder of the weekend and wobble southwestward 
across South Florida and the Keys. While the best upper level 
support appears to sneak east of our area, the local environment 
will experience increasing deep layered moisture and increasing 
cyclonic flow above the surface. The surface flow will remain 
light as weak troughing/low develops over South Florida. Given 
this, rain chances are expected to rise considerably through the 
weekend. With that said, uncertainty remains high.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak split ridge across South Florida will maintain light mostly
southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight
period. Only minor adjustments made in the evening marine update.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both MTH and EYW through tomorrow 
night. There is a lot of uncertainty in regards to the development 
of showers tomorrow. Some guidance has shower activity beginning 
tomorrow afternoon, while other guidance leaves us high and dry 
through tomorrow evening. There is also the possibility of a reverse 
cloud line developing during a short window tomorrow afternoon. Due 
to lower confidence in the short-term forecast, have opted not to 
include any mention of showers in the TAF at this time. Winds will 
be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 8 knots tonight, then are 
expected to become variable around 5 knots tomorrow morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1996, the daily record rainfall of 2.36" was 
recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB

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