991 
FXUS63 KGLD 082126
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
326 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Morning) 
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

RAP analysis has a developing trough over the western CONUS with a 
ridge over the central Plains which will slowly move eastward 
through the night and the day Saturday. The rest of today will see 
elevated to areas of near critical fire weather conditions mainly 
along and west of Highway 27. Going into tonight as the trough 
progresses eastward associated clouds will move into the area from 
west to east with no precipitation expected. Overnight lows are 
expected to fall into the low 50s to low 60s as the clouds limit any 
radiational cooling. 

Into Saturday, high clouds continue to move across the area as 
temperatures warm along and south of Interstate 70 as a low develops 
with a warm front ahead and trailing cold front behind. High 
temperatures will range from the upper 70s across NW portions of the 
CWA to the low 90s across the SE portions; it should be noted that 
the high clouds may play a role in somewhat reducing the afternoon 
high temperatures. The main story for Saturday will be the winds 
leading to near critical to critical fire weather conditions over
parts of the CWA. Upgraded Cheyenne County Colorado, Greeley, 
Wichita and Wallace counties in Kansas to a Red Flag Warning for 
Saturday afternoon; left Kit Carson and Sherman counties in a Fire
Weather Watch for now. Wound up upgrading due to recent trend of 
potentially drier dewpoints that guidance was indicating along 
with sustained winds of 15-20mph and wind gusts up to 35mph. Kit 
Carson and Sherman counties continue to show just slightly higher 
dewpoints so kept them in the Watch. Due to these strong winds any
fire that does spark has the potential to spread rapidly. In 
addition with the strong winds patchy blowing dust has also been 
introduced into the forecast for portions of Cheyenne County 
Colorado and Greeley County as winds look to be the strongest over
these areas along with steeper lapse rates in the lowest 0-2km of
the atmosphere on top of the already very dry soil. 

Saturday night and Sunday morning, as the low pressure system moves 
east the trailing cold front moves through NW to SE across the area. 
A small chance of light showers looks possible as it moves through, 
however confidence is low due to the drier air in the profile so 
have not introduced into the forecast at this time. Overnight lows 
look to fall into the low 40s to low 50s across the area with 
northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

The initial upper trough in a series moves across the area during
the day on Sunday, followed by weak ridging across the central
high plains on Monday. With the associated surface low over the
southern plains and cooler air moving in behind a front, highs
will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s on Sunday as the bulk of 
any precipitation associated with the system remains mainly 
across the panhandle region of Oklahoma and Texas. Only the 
southern third of the forecast area will see a slight chance of 
light rain on Sunday through Sunday evening. Higher pressure
follows along with the upper ridge on Monday and Monday night for
dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.

The next deeper upper trough and low center in the series sweeps 
through the western U.S. on Monday night into early Tuesday and 
lifts out across the central Rockies and High Plains between 
Tuesday and Wednesday. Differences are showing up in the position 
and timing of these features aloft and at the surface that could 
produce a significant change in the timing and amount of 
precipitation expected across the forecast area. One concern is a 
possible dry slot that may develop as the upper and low lifts out 
that may that significantly limit precipitation over the western 
sections of the forecast area. If precipitation remains limited,
dry and breezy conditions could bring elevated fire weather
conditions to a portion of the area Monday afternoon.

Cooler temperatures move into the area Tuesday night and 
Wednesday that persist through the end of the week. Highs will be
in the upper 50s to upper 60s while lows will cool into the lower
30s to lower 40s as the first freeze for a portion of the area 
becomes possible early Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

The 18Z TAF period for KGLD and KMCK features VFR conditions 
throughout the duration of the period. KGLD will see SSE winds for 
the majority of the period, there is a brief window where winds 
could gust up to 20 knots during the afternoon due to diurnal mixing 
window should be brief enough that it wasnt mentioned in the TAF. 
Forecast soundings have been hinting at window of some LLWS near 30 
knots near 06Z but to the lack of consistency between guidance and 
lack of obvious forcing for this to occur opted to leave out of the 
TAF and will be reassessed for the 00Z TAF. Winds at each site 
will switch to the WNW near 15Z Saturday as an approaching trough 
over the Rockies works its way into the area. KGLD should see 
gusts near 20 knots towards the end of the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

On Saturday near critical to critical fire weather conditions are 
expected along and south of Interstate 70 as relative humidity 
falls into the upper teens and west to southwest winds gust up 
to 35 mph. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Cheyenne and Kit 
Carson counties in Colorado as well as Sherman, Wallace, Greeley 
and Wichita counties in Kansas. 

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible along and west of 
Highway 27 Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

A record or near record high temperature is possible at the
following location Saturday, October 9:

Hill City..........90 degrees set back in 1965

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ 
     Saturday for KSZ027-041-042.

     Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for KSZ013.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Saturday for COZ254.

     Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for COZ253.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TT
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...TT
FIRE WEATHER...TT
CLIMATE...99