066 
FXUS63 KGLD 082123
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
323 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Added an area of patchy blowing dust for portions of Cheyenne
County Colorado and Greeley County Kansas for Saturday afternoon.
This area coincides with where the strongest wind gusts are
expected to occur with with the steepest lapse rates in the lowest
0-2km of the atmosphere. The soil should also be favorable given
the dry conditions in the region. 

UPDATE Issued at 350 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Fire Weather Watch is now in effect Saturday afternoon for
Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado as well as Sherman,
Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties in Kansas. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) 
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Today-tonight...an elongated upper level trough oriented north-south 
along the west coast of the country early this morning will steadily 
move east through tonight reaching the northern plains southwest 
into the desert southwest. High clouds will move across the area 
ahead of this feature with no precipitation expected. It will 
continue to be rather warm for this time of year with high 
temperatures in the low to upper 80s. Low temperatures are expected 
to remain mild for early October with readings in the low to upper 
50s, mostly due to the expected high cloud cover. 

Saturday-Saturday night...the above mentioned upper trough continues 
its move to the east reaching a Minnesota to New Mexico line by 
sunrise Sunday morning. High clouds continue to move across the area 
during the day with some decrease from north to south overnight. At 
the surface, low pressure is forecast near or just south of 
Interstate 70 by days end then well away from the area during the 
night as a cold front moves through. Gusty west to southwest winds 
are expected during the day, mainly from Flagler to Goodland and 
Oakley west while to the north light northwest winds are expected. 
For the overnight hours, northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph or so 
are expected. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s 
to mid 80s across far eastern Colorado, lower 80s to lower 90s 
elsewhere, hottest from Hill City to Leoti south. A record or near 
record high temperature is possible in Hill City. Low temperatures 
fall into the lower 40s in far eastern Colorado, mid 40s to lower 
50s elsewhere. 

Sunday-Sunday night...the upper trough continues east reaching the 
Tri-State area during the afternoon, continuing east overnight. 
There is enough moisture in the 850-500mb layer skirting across 
those south of the interstate to support a slight chance for rain 
showers during the day, moving east and about out of the area after 
midnight. Northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph are expected during 
the day, decreasing to speeds under 10 mph during the night. High 
temperatures will be much cooler with readings in the 65 to 75 
degree range. Low temperatures will also be much cooler compared to 
the past few days with readings in the mid 30s to lower 40s. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

The initial upper trough in a series moves across the area during
the day on Sunday, followed by weak ridging across the central
high plains on Monday. With the associated surface low over the
southern plains and cooler air moving in behind a front, highs
will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s on Sunday as the bulk of 
any precipitation associated with the system remains mainly 
across the panhandle region of Oklahoma and Texas. Only the 
southern third of the forecast area will see a slight chance of 
light rain on Sunday through Sunday evening. Higher pressure
follows along with the upper ridge on Monday and Monday night for
dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures.

The next deeper upper trough and low center in the series sweeps 
through the western U.S. on Monday night into early Tuesday and 
lifts out across the central Rockies and High Plains between 
Tuesday and Wednesday. Differences are showing up in the position 
and timing of these features aloft and at the surface that could 
produce a significant change in the timing and amount of 
precipitation expected across the forecast area. One concern is a 
possible dry slot that may develop as the upper and low lifts out 
that may that significantly limit precipitation over the western 
sections of the forecast area. If precipitation remains limited,
dry and breezy conditions could bring elevated fire weather
conditions to a portion of the area Monday afternoon.

Cooler temperatures move into the area Tuesday night and 
Wednesday that persist through the end of the week. Highs will be
in the upper 50s to upper 60s while lows will cool into the lower
30s to lower 40s as the first freeze for a portion of the area 
becomes possible early Thursday morning.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

The 18Z TAF period for KGLD and KMCK features VFR conditions 
throughout the duration of the period. KGLD will see SSE winds for 
the majority of the period, there is a brief window where winds 
could gust up to 20 knots during the afternoon due to diurnal mixing 
window should be brief enough that it wasnt mentioned in the TAF. 
Forecast soundings have been hinting at window of some LLWS near 30 
knots near 06Z but to the lack of consistency between guidance and 
lack of obvious forcing for this to occur opted to leave out of the 
TAF and will be reassessed for the 00Z TAF. Winds at each site 
will switch to the WNW near 15Z Saturday as an approaching trough 
over the Rockies works its way into the area. KGLD should see 
gusts near 20 knots towards the end of the period.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ 
     Saturday for KSZ027-041-042.

     Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for KSZ013.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Saturday for COZ254.

     Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for COZ253.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...TT