069 
FXUS66 KSGX 082006
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
106 PM PDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system that brought rain this morning will continue
to move out this afternoon and evening. Showers in the mountains
will end, but gusty winds will continue in the mountains and 
deserts. Dry with a warming trend through Sunday. A low pressure 
system from the north will bring cooling Monday and Tuesday, with 
strong and gusty west to northwest winds in the mountains and 
deserts and with a slight chance of showers for the mountains for 
late Monday and Monday night. Winds will turn north to northeast 
Tuesday and weaken into Wednesday. High pressure will bring a dry
warming trend for the last half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Showers mostly ended by midday and only very isolated light 
showers are expected in far inland valleys and mountains this 
afternoon. An updated (noon) rainfall summary is headlined on our
homepage weather.gov/sandiego. As the afternoon gradually dries 
out, coastal areas and deserts should get some sunshine this 
afternoon. Winds will be quite brisk in the mountains and deserts 
today, with top gusts in the mountain/desert belts exceeding 40 
mph. Another shortwave rotates through the mean trough Saturday, 
but with a more inland track and dry. It will boost winds again, 
but not as strong as today's. Skies will turn mostly clear over 
the weekend. Offshore flow develops Saturday night and Sunday 
which will produce localized northerly breezes through and below 
mountain passes. It will also combine with higher pressure aloft 
to bring us on Sunday what might be our warmest day in the coming 
week. 80s will be common in all lower elevations away from the 
immediate coast. Plenty of blue skies will help Sunday live up to 
its name. You've heard of the unseasonably deep trough of low 
pressure progged to dive into the western U.S. Monday and Tuesday.
It's track is currently looking a little too far east to bring 
SoCal sufficient moisture for meaningful precipitation. Right now 
ensembles and forecaster judgment believe the mountains might be 
the only places in SoCal that would get anything measurable. While
we don't know if we get precip, or how much, we do know it will 
be breezy and cold. Mountains and deserts should get strong gusts
exceeding 45-55 mph in some spots. This morning's guidance has
backed off the winds just a little. Much of the precip should be 
snow as snow levels Monday night drop like a rock, from 7,000 feet
to 4,000 feet. Still a lot of uncertainty in the placement and
depth of this deep low. Solutions range from totally dry, cool 
and windy, or moderately wet everywhere, cool and windy. The 
mountains will have the orographic advantage for the best chance 
at precip. Offshore flow develops Tuesday and continues weaker 
Wednesday. Cold air in the high desert could bring frost to that 
region early Tuesday and maybe early Wednesday, especially where 
the winds calm down. Dry and warmer weather will be the trend 
later next week as high pressure aloft builds. Temperatures should
rise to a little above average.

&&

.AVIATION... 
081945Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN clouds with bases 1500-4500 ft MSL 
this afternoon. Higher terrain will continue to be obscured through 
this evening. SCT-BKN high clouds will increase through tonight, 
with bases AOA 20000 ft MSL. Local areas of BKN low clouds with 
bases 2500-3500 ft MSL overnight.   

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN clouds AOA 8000 feet MSL today. Periods 
of SHRA with vis restrictions of 2-4 SM in SHRA/BR in the mountains 
through 22Z. Otherwise, west winds gusting 25-40 kt at times through 
the passes and along the desert slopes through 06Z Sat. 

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds occasionally gusting around 20 kt likely this 
afternoon and again Saturday afternoon in the outer waters. Stronger 
northwest winds likely next Monday-Tuesday, with gusts around 25 kt. 

&&

.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...CO