330 
FXUS61 KBTV 081718
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
118 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Valley fog this morning will give way to another beautiful day
with above normal temperatures. A backdoor cold front will push
cooler air westward into our area later this evening. Near 
normal temperatures and somewhat cloudier conditions are 
expected over the weekend, followed by unseasonable warmth on 
Monday and Tuesday. Slightly lower temperatures and a few 
showers may be seen midweek, but temperatures will remain above 
normal for mid October.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 113 PM EDT Friday...No update needed as all elements are
within thresholds. Plenty of sunshine acrs our fa with some high
clouds developing from sw to ne. Temps are warming into the mid
60s to lower 70s with 72F already here at BTV. Highs generally
in the upper 60s to mid 70s by 15-16z today. 

Previous Discussion...
A persistence forecast has been made for today. Today should 
play out remarkably similar to yesterday, from the valley fog to
the pocket of stratus traversing the Adirondacks and south- 
central Vermont this morning. Anticipate pleasant afternoon 
conditions with clearing skies and high temperatures near 70 to 
the mid 70s. The main difference will be the switch from north 
to easterly flow throughout the day as a backdoor cold front 
moves into the region later this evening into the overnight 
hours.

For tonight, gradually increasing southeasterly winds are expected,
with northeast winds still in the northern St. Lawrence valley. Gap
winds in the Greens and some channeling in the Champlain Valley
could allow for some 15 to 20 mph gusts overnight into the afternoon
in the favored areas. We could also see some pockets of drizzle in
Windsor and Orange County overnight into early Saturday morning as
some maritime air is advected in the southeasterly flow, but the
likelihood of widespread drizzle seems low at this time. Low
temperatures generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Strong 1032mb
surface high shifts from New Brunswick towards Nova Scotia, keeping
dry, stable air entrenched over much of New England. Saturday will
be partly to mostly cloudy, especially across northern New York,
with high temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...A shortwave trough will traverse the North
Country during this period, causing an increase in cloud cover but
low chances of precipitation. A fairly deep layer above the surface
will remain dry under the influence of ridging with the strong
surface high still parked near Nova Scotia. Forecast soundings as a
result suggest a thick high cloud layer with dry air below in many
areas. However, northern New York, mainly north and west of the
Adirondacks, should see a period of low clouds with a few showers
possible Sunday morning in response to the trough where the ridge to
the east has less influence. These clouds along with increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will keep low temperatures relatively mild
in the 50s, with other locations across the North Country tending to
be closer to seasonable norms dropping down into the 40s. As with
Saturday, we will continue to see an easterly component to the wind
over much of Vermont. Therefore, a repeat of low clouds in portions
of eastern Vermont is possible, although it looks like trajectories
start to become more southwesterly moving through the day. A mostly
cloudy sky is offered for much of the period but would not be
surprised if there are adjustments needed. Again, precipitation
chances remain low (20% or less) through Sunday. Temperatures should
remain above normal by about 3 to 6 degrees with 60s in most
locations for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...Outside of a weak low pressure system
moving over the North Country on Wednesday, the long term will be
consistently quite warm and dry with a deep longwave trough out in
the western US supporting downstream ridging over our area through
the rest of the week. Noted that GFS 2-meter temperature anomalies
exceed 20 degrees on Tuesday in northern portions of the region,
with even the ensemble mean only a few degrees lower, suggesting
potential for upper 70s to low 80s high temperatures. For now,
continue to go higher than the NBM on Monday and Tuesday with
temperatures remaining a 5 or so degrees lower than potential
values. Tuesday is particular promising for warmth as the 850
millibar thermal ridge centers over our area during the afternoon
and some drier air at the top of the mixed layer could help further
boost temperatures. Wednesday shower chances are higher as one goes
west and still are low (30% or less). Some of the latest model data
supports trending chances upward across northern areas given the
track of the best dynamical forcing, but the system will not pack
much punch with rainfall. The main impact will be briefly cooler
conditions. Then quiet and warm conditions return for Thursday,
although the air mass will likely be less warm than on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions with light winds are
expected for the next 6 hours at all taf sites. A backdoor cold
front approaching the region from eastern VT this evening will
increase the gradient across our taf sites. This will result in
stronger bl winds of 5 to 10 knots with higher values in the 400
to 600 feet above ground level to limit fog development
overnight. In addition, increasing moisture on southeast upslope
flow will result in some mvfr cigs toward midnight at MPV and
possibly EFK. Soundings at SLK indicate lighter bl winds and
potential for some mvfr/ifr vis in fog/br, so have tempo this
into the taf btwn 07-11z. Otherwise, light and variable winds
become southeast 5 to 10 knots overnight, except northeast at
KMSS, before shifting to the southeast on Saturday. 

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber