011 
FXUS63 KMQT 081715
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
115 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021

Water vapor satellite and SPC Mesoanalysis show the upper-level low 
that has been slowly crawling northward through the Mississippi 
Valley is now centered over northern Illinois. Mesoanalysis shows a 
band of vorticity at 500 mb oriented WNW to ESE through Wisconsin 
and northern Lower Michigan. Implied dCVA along and north of that 
vort line is forcing a broken band of showers which will continue to 
lift northward this morning, crossing the U.P. between about now and 
12z. Dew points in the low to mid 60s advecting northward across 
Lake Michigan and then being forced upslope by a light SE wind is 
leading to low clouds and mist over the central U.P. Some of this 
mist may thicken into fog this morning, but for the most part 
visibility should remain around 1/2 mile or more.

Today, as the ULL continues to slowly lift northward across Lake 
Michigan, expect thick low level cloud cover to continue. However, 
the fog should gradually mix out by late morning. Additional 
isolated to scattered showers will be possible throughout the day. 
Opted not to include any thunder in the forecast since currently the 
closest lightning is near Milwaukee and model soundings for this 
afternoon show only a very thin CAPE profile. However, an isolated 
rumble of thunder can't completely be ruled out. Look for highs in 
the mid to upper 60s.

Tonight, the ULL will make its closest pass to the U.P., passing 
over about Traverse City. In doing so, there will be additional 
scattered showers for the eastern U.P. Meanwhile, the west half will 
dry out. Low cloud cover will persist through the night which will 
keep lows very warm for this time of year, in the upper 50s and low 
60s. More patchy fog could develop as well, mainly central and east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 413 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021

Not much change in terms of the overall expectations for this
forecast period as compared to previously. The primary 'headlines'
continue to be the unseasonable warmth along with the unsettled 
pattern already underway into next week for the U.P.

High temperatures will be well into the 60s and 70s this weekend
as ample amounts of warm, moist air continuously flows into Upper
Michigan. Some moderation in the temps can be expected early next
week behind a couple of passing lows, but ultimately, these well-
above normal temps hold steady through much of next week. By 
week's end, there are indications that cooler air (closer toward 
normal) arrives. Low temps will respond accordingly, struggling to
drop below the 50 degree mark this weekend, with 40s looking to 
reappear next week.

As previously discussed, a few disturbances crossing the Upper
Great Lakes will allow for multiple precipitation chances.
Although a weak trough will be moving through on Saturday, overall
drier conditions (just won't feel it at the surface with 50s and 
60s dewpoints hanging around, another metric of the ongoing 
unusual weather locally) will briefly pass through. The
combination of losing a lifting mechanism (the exiting trough) as
well as loss of moisture aloft yields limited PoPs for most except
for primarily portions of the eastern U.P. This won't last long
though as a more organized low quickly marches across MN on the
former weak trough's heels.

With the stronger low, instability will accompany it, as well as 
much higher shear values and the return of more supportive PWATs. 
Therefore, thunder can be anticipated, but it is additionally 
worth noting that some stronger storms may be able to develop 
given the aligning parameters, particularly under an additional 
boost diurnally-speaking, given the timing.

But, the pattern remains progressive as yet the next low 
approaches and crosses Upper Michigan, tracking further west 
according to the models as compared to runs just over 24 hours 
ago. Another slight change is that it doesn't look to weaken as 
much as prior model runs. Regardless of these slight shifts in the
forecast, precip chances remain area-wide Monday into Tuesday. 

Should see a brief break mid-week before yet another, even more 
stout-looking low approaches and crosses the region. However, 
models continue to diverge from one another, with fairly 
significant differences in tracking/their projected paths.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021

A broad surface low pressure continues to slowly move northeast into 
Lower Michigan this afternoon resulting in mostly IFR to MVFR flight 
conditions at the Upper Michigan terminals. At KSAW and KCMX, expect 
low end MVFR this afternoon, with possible fluctuations to high end 
IFR as brief VCSH to -shra occurs at times. At KIWD, expect high end 
MVFR, with fluctuations to low end VFR periods at times. Expect IFR 
cigs to return to all of the terminals tonight as moisture continues 
to be brought into the region from the surface low pressure, with 
LIFR cigs likely at KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021

Light winds of generally 15 kts or less will persist across the lake 
through Saturday evening. Not much has changed regarding the low 
pressure system that's expected to move from the Northern Plains 
through northern Minnesota and into northwestern Ontario on Sunday. 
It still looks like there will be a period of SE winds 20-30 kts on 
Sunday, mainly on the east half, followed by a period of WSW winds 
around 20 kts Sunday night and Monday, mainly on the west half. 
Light winds should return for Monday night and Tuesday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...RJC