461 
FXUS64 KSHV 081524
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1024 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.UPDATE...

Slightly massaged afternoon high temperatures given the slower
morning diurnal trend, and some of the morning high-res guidance.

/44/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/ 

AVIATION...

For the 08/12Z TAFs...Some patchy fog has developed at KMLU and 
our eastern zones this morning, but this should mix out by 
08/14z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period, with some scattered afternoon CU and
cirrus moving across the region. Expect southerly winds between 5
to 10 kts today, with gusts up to 15 kts at KTYR. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/ 

SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday/ 

Partly cloudy skies expected this afternoon as scattered CU develops 
across the region.  Otherwise, expect dry conditions to continue 
areawide as upper-level ridging builds into the Southern Plains and 
Lower Mississippi Valley along with high pressure at the surface. 
One thing of note today will be the warm temperatures. A sfc low
that has developed over SW Kansas from leeside cyclogenesis, will
induce southerly winds between 5 to 10 mph across the region 
today, with gusts up to 15 mph across portions of East Texas, SE
Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas. This will give us slightly warmer 
conditions, with afternoon temps climbing into low 90s across the
region. These temps will approach record highs for this time of 
year. However, despite the warm temps, it should be comfortable 
from a humidity standpoint, as dewpoint temps will be in the 
upper 50s to low 60s.

Dry conditions will continue overnight, as upper-level ridging and 
sfc high pressure remains over the region.  Could see some passing 
high clouds as upper-level winds may bring in some cirrus ahead of 
an upper-level trough across the Rockies. The clouds, along with
light southerly winds, will limit maximum radiational cooling.
Expect slightly warmer overnight lows, with temps in the low to 
mid 60s.

By Saturday, could see some more passing high cirrus along with 
scattered afternoon CU, but dry conditions to continue as upper 
ridging and sfc high pressure will remain over the region.
However, southerly winds will be on the increase with a tightening
sfc pressure gradient ahead of the aforementioned leeside low and
a digging longwave trough across the Rockies. This will allow 
afternoon highs to approach record warmth again, with temps 
climbing into the low to mid 90s areawide. Also, expect the 
southerly winds to bring an uptick in humidity values, as 
dewpoints will likely climb into the low to mid 60s. /20/

LONG TERM.../Saturday Night through Friday/ 

Saturday Night will be best characterized by broad ridging aloft 
centered across far south Texas extending north and east into the 
Tenn Valley. This feature will begin to flatten out and shift slowly 
south and east as a split longwave trough gathers steam across the 
Intermountain West during the day Sunday, moving into the Southern 
Plains late Sunday into Sunday Night. Low level moisture return will 
likely not begin until late Saturday Night but more so into the day 
Sunday and initially shall remain very shallow, confined to the 
lowest 5kft or so. We really do not see the column beginning to 
saturate until late Sunday Night across our northwest third as upper 
forcing begins to increase as the southern portion of the longwave 
trough ejects out of the OK/TX Pnhdl and into the Southern and 
Central Plains, taking on a negative tilt as it does. The surface 
reflection of this upper trough in the form of a strong cold front 
should rapidly move out of the Texas Hill Country on Sunday, moving 
east of the I-35 Corridor of OK/N TX Sunday Evening, moving south 
and east of the I-30 Corridor late Sunday Night towards sunrise 
Monday Morning. Models continue to advertise a narrow corridor of 
1500-2000 J/KG of CAPE in-advance of the sfc trough Sunday Evening 
just west of our northwest most zones, but maintaining at least 1000-
1500 J/KG ahead of what should be a broken line of convection 
accompanying the sfc trough south and east of the I-30 Corridor late 
Sunday Night. Deep Layer shear is supportive of organized, severe 
convection at least near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor of NE 
TX, SE OK and SW AR late Sunday Night before storms should become 
slightly elevated as they move south and east of the corridor closer 
to sunrise Monday Morning. SPC's Day 3 Outlook now outlines an 
Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across North Texas and much of 
Southern and Southeast Oklahoma Sunday Evening/Sunday Night with a 
Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms near a TYR to TXK to MWT line. 

Models are in pretty good agreement with the sfc cold front stalling 
out on Monday, somewhere in the neighborhood of Deep East Texas into 
extreme NW LA and S AR with this feature rapidly returning northward 
as a warm front Monday Night into Tuesday. This seems plausible as 
our upper trough will have advanced into the Great Lakes Monday 
Night with southwesterly flow aloft continuing as another stronger 
and deeper upper level trough digs into the Four Corners Region of 
the Country on Tuesday. It appears at least right now that this 
feature will eject further north and east than its predecessor did 
by the middle of next week which will result in our region remaining 
in southwesterly flow aloft through at least the end of the extended 
period, keeping at least small rain chances in the forecast through 
much of next week. 

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  10 
MLU  65  92  64  92 /   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  64  91  62  91 /   0   0   0  10 
TXK  68  93  65  91 /   0   0   0  10 
ELD  64  90  63  90 /   0   0   0  10 
TYR  66  93  68  92 /   0   0   0  10 
GGG  65  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10 
LFK  64  93  66  93 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

13/20/44