National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDEPZ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDEPZ
Product Timestamp: 2021-10-08 12:20 UTC
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384 FXUS64 KEPZ 081220 AAA AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 620 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 ...CORRECTS NOTE ON SATURDAY'S RECORD IN LONG TERM DISCUSSION... .PREV DISCUSSION...548 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021... ...Updated for 12Z TAF Discussion... .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Our light and variable surface winds this morning will increase and come out of the southwest by late morning or early afternoon. The winds will stay at or below 10 knots. We could see a few hours of low end gusty winds for the New Mexico TAF sites. The gusty winds will last till around sunset. Aloft we will see some occasional high ceilings of BKN250 today, but for much of the time we will have unlimited ceilings through Saturday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION...403 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Breezy and warm conditions are expected for today and Saturday. A cool front will bring highs back closer to seasonal averages for Sunday and Monday but with breezy conditions continuing. On Tuesday, a potent storm system will bring windy to very windy conditions to the area with a stronger cold front. Area mountains are to see a widespread freeze on Wednesday morning with lowland afternoon highs much below normal. Temperatures warm a little for Thursday with light winds remaining. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight... A dry and warm, dare I say hot (for this time of year) weather pattern has settled over the area. Aloft we have a southwest flow, as we sit in between the short wave ridge that moved through the region yesterday and the next upper level trough still sitting off the west coast. This southwest flow will give us mostly sunny skies and our high temperatures will run 6 to 10 degrees above average this afternoon. Our surface winds will be light and variable this morning, then becoming westerly in the afternoon at around 10 mph. Our quiet weather will continue into Thursday night, with mostly clear skies and the winds once again becoming light and variable. Our low temperatures Saturday morning will run 5 to 10 degrees above average. && .LONG TERM... A tale of two troughs: it was the breeziest of times. It was the windiest of times. It was near record warmth. It was much below average. And that's as far as this discussion will compare to Dickens's famous novel. The breezy trough will begin to influence our weather at the start of the long term on Saturday as it pivots southwest from NV into the Four Corners. Southwest flow aloft will strengthen while a surface low develops over the Central Plains before shifting south into the TX Panhandle on Sunday. These features aren't particularly strong, but it will make for a couple breezy days on Saturday and Sunday as the thrust of the trough swings through Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday will be near record warmth though short of the record of 94 (previous AFD incorrectly noted it as 91. 91 is Sunday's record high), but as the trough moves through Sunday morning it will bring a Pacific front with it. Highs on Sunday will be closer to normal. Monday will be a transition day ahead of trough number 2. With decent southwest flow aloft and a developing cyclone over CO, highs will increase from Sunday with a somewhat breezy afternoon. Monday morning, a few of the highest elevations could see sub- freezing temperatures as well as sheltered mountain valleys. The second trough still looks on track to bring a windy to very windy day across the area for Tuesday. The GFS looks a little weaker than previous runs, but still develops a stout 992 mb low over Eastern CO with a 105 knot jet streak at 500 mb. The Euro remains a little weaker and slower than the GFS with a 90 knot 500 mb jet and 999 surface low. Nevertheless, with a strong Pacific front, both models show a tight pressure gradient trailing into New Mexico. Thus, in either scenario, Tuesday will be windy though the GFS would indicate a high-end wind advisory (surface winds around 30-35 knots with gusts around 50 knots) while the Euro a more general wind advisory (surface winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts 40-45 knots). With winds from the southwest ahead of the front, blowing dust is a concern until the cold front arrives. The highs are a little tricky for Tuesday, especially for central and eastern areas. The quicker GFS (MEX guidance) keeps highs out of the 80s for Tuesday for El Paso, but the slower Euro would allow us to tack on a few degrees to that high. Either way, Wednesday will be much cooler with a widespread freeze likely on Wednesday morning for area mountains. Winds will be lighter on Wednesday with some moderation in temperatures expected for Thursday with continuing light winds. Much of the period will be dry though the Gila and surrounding areas could see a few showers on Tuesday with only light rain accumulations expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... We will have one more day of relatively quiet weather, then the winds return. For today, we will be very warm and dry, with west to southwest winds at less than 15 mph. On Saturday an upper level storm system will approach the Four Corners region. The latest model runs have slowed this system down a bit, so that now the best timing for strong winds will be in the middle of night. So instead of having one day with strong winds, we will see both Saturday and Sunday have breezy afternoon winds. Min RH's for the weekend will be in the teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in the mountains. We will be close to Red Flag conditions both Saturday and Sunday in the lowlands. Monday will be a cooler and calmer day, but the winds return on Tuesday as another upper level storm system moves across the Four Corners region. This second system may bring a slight chance for rain and high mountain snow showers to the Gila Region. It will also bring another round of strong winds. We will again be close to Red Flag conditions on Tuesday. Min RH's on Tuesday will be in the upper teens and lower 20's in the lowlands and near 30% in the mountains. Next Wednesday will again be calmer and cooler. && && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 91 63 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 86 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 87 56 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 87 60 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 66 47 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 86 57 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 77 53 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 88 54 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 85 55 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 91 64 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 90 57 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 94 60 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 83 58 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 92 61 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 88 57 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 88 63 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 86 58 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 87 57 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 87 58 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 88 58 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 77 53 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 76 50 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 75 49 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 80 47 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 84 56 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 85 55 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 77 47 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 81 51 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 84 48 81 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 78 51 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 80 53 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 87 53 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 86 53 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 87 54 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 81 53 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/99