737 
FXUS63 KBIS 081148
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
648 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Isolated showers continue to linger across northern areas this
morning. Look for these to slowly move out of the region or
dissipate this morning. Clearing across the south has brought some
patchy fog this morning. Updated to add this in for the next few
hours. Meanwhile haze and smoke remain for areas across the north
and west, and could linger through the day. The remainder of the 
day sees another round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms 
develop across the area. An isolated strong storm is possible in 
the central and southeast, although severe weather is overall not 
expected today. Look for highs in the 60s and 70s today. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Look for a near seasonal day with isolated to scattered showers 
and a few thunderstorms today. Frontal boundary will remain
stalled across the state today while an unsettled southwest flow
pattern brings weak waves. The end result will be isolated to 
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today. SPC has dropped 
the marginal risk for today in the east. That said there still could
be a pocket of modest instability and shear later today through 
this evening. An isolated strong storm in the east is still 
possible, although small hail and gusty winds will be the main 
threats. This stalled front will bring temperatures in the 60s 
northwest to the 70s southeast. Northeast winds today will overall
be light, however, are the right direction to bring in smoke from
wildfires in Canada. Lingered smoke mention through the day for 
some northern and western areas.

Tonight, a surface high skirts the area which may bring a brief
break in showers and thunderstorms. Then a surface low starts
taking shape in Wyoming which will start bringing widespread
showers to the region from southwest to northeast. Lows tonight 
will overall be in the 40s and 50s. Perhaps some patchy fog is
possible tonight into Saturday morning to areas with rain,
although confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast
at this time. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

An overall active and cooler weather pattern still looking to take
shape for the long term period. 

This weekend still looks to see a strong surface low and broad
upper level trough move through the area starting Saturday and
exiting the region Sunday evening. Signals remain strong a wide
area of 1 inch or more QPF is possible for a lot of the CWA.
Perhaps some heavy rain is possible at times, although the overall
threat of flooding remains uncertain at this time given the long 
duration of the rain and the antecedent dry conditions. This
system appears to be mainly rain, with perhaps a few thunderstorms
at times. An isolated strong storm is possible Saturday in 
southeastern ND. Breezy easterly winds may be found on Saturday, 
then becoming breezy westerly winds on Sunday. Look for 
temperatures in the 50s and 60s each day, with lows in the 40s and
50s.

Monday and much of Tuesday look to be a transition day as the
first low pressure system moves out. Temperatures may slightly
warm on Monday, before cooling on Tuesday. Breezy winds are also
possible at times. Lows to start the week could be quite cool, and
generally in the 30s and 40s. Mid to late week continues to be 
monitored for another widespread precipitation event. Ensemble 
means still placing this low pressure system over the area, 
although some individual members are shifting perhaps a touch 
eastward. Continue to maintain likely pops for the higher
confidence days mid this week. Overall the system looks warm
enough for mostly rain. Still some probabilities of snow,
especially across western portions, and perhaps favoring a
Thursday morning timeline. This will have to continue to be
monitored, and the lack of a strong push of cold air should limit
any potential snow accumulations. Look for cooler temperatures too
during this time period with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

VFR to periods of MVFR conditions are expected through the
forecast period. This morning could see some lingering showers in
the north, with patchy fog in the south, and some areas of haze
and smoke. The rest of today then sees scattered showers and a 
few thunderstorms at times across the area. This could bring some 
brief MVFR conditions at times. Shower activity becomes more 
isolated Friday evening, although lingering cloud cover could 
bring some MVFR ceilings. Late Friday night into Saturday could
see widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. This could bring
widespread MVFR to perhaps brief IFR conditions. Over north and 
west North Dakota, some wildfire smoke may reduce visibility at 
times through today.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin