893 
FXUS63 KAPX 081047
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
647 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...Rain Showers. Thunder?...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. 

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast (Today/Tonight)...A 500 mb low over N 
Illinois, and the sfc trough it is forcing, will move into Lower 
Michigan by tonight and kick off rounds of scattered showers as the 
sfc trough moves through the forecast area. Pwats with this system 
have are expected to be just shy of 1.50" which is 90% moving 
average for APX. However, the low is filling, and with a dearth of 
forcing, scattered to numerous rain showers are all we will get 
today. There is a chance of thunder as the NBM puts the percentages 
around 40-50% in the afternoon and evening. This correlates with the 
colder air on the downstream portion of the 500 mb low. In any 
event, rain showers will be scattered to numerous through the day 
and into the night, with chances of thunder. The winds at 500 mb are 
barely 20-25 knots, with the 0-6km shear of 15 knots. So no severe 
weather is expected. Models suggest that the 500 mb trough axis 
moves through, the forcing will diminish, and so do the chances for 
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...Spotty showers through weekend, breezy Sunday...

High impact weather potential: None expected

Synopsis/Pattern: Saturday will feature troughing extending from the 
Great Lakes down through the mid-Atlantic. The northern half of this 
trough will weaken as it moves northeast, while the southern half 
becomes a cutoff low over Florida. Meanwhile a positively-tilted 
longwave trough over the Great Basin also splits into two separate 
pieces of energy, with each wave set to pass either over or near the 
upper Great Lakes in the coming days. The first passes just west of 
Lake Superior Sunday night...with its associated occluded surface 
low following the same path into southeast Ontario. The second 
approaches early next week.

Details/Forecast: Showers will be around to start the day Saturday 
and we'll be in moist southerly flow between high pressure to our 
east and the surface low to the west. Thunder and some brief heavy 
downpours are possible thanks to a few hundred Joules of instability 
and skinny CAPE profiles, and PWAT's remaining climatologically high 
(around 1.1" a full +1 St. Dev above normal). Forecast soundings 
suggest some synoptic moisture loss during the afternoon along with 
weak subsidence behind the shortwave...so don't believe we'll see 
area-wide soaking rains through the day, but more along the lines of 
spotty showers and downpours off and on...perhaps with diminishing 
coverage/intensity into the evening. Then a bit of a break early 
overnight, before moisture transport and dynamic support both 
increase across the area just ahead of the warm front attached to 
the system west of lake Superior. Winds ramp up overnight into 
Sunday, with gusts between 20 and 25mph as the gradient tightens. 
Above normal temperatures continue. Forecast soundings also suggest 
a warm nose developing around 850mb Sunday, with a bit of a dry 
layer, suggesting less intense rain showers, perhaps even drizzle. 
The resurgence of moisture and some fgen crossing the area may be 
able to overcome this, however, into more bonafide rain again. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

High impact weather potential: Minimal

A second shortwave approaches the area Monday with its associated 
surface low crossing the upper Great Lakes Monday night into 
Tuesday...bringing additional unsettled weather early in the week. 
Then a deep cut-off low and strengthening surface low pass just west 
of Lake Superior again, bringing more rain chances. The abnormal 
warmth continues through the week. Afternoon highs remain in the 
70's with overnight lows in the 50's...more than ten degrees above 
normal. No real autumn-like airmass in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

More fog and low clouds (IFR/MVFR) will start the day in the TAFs
this morning. Rain showers, and some thunder have been scattered 
about as an upper level low in Illinois continue to move north. 
The low will move through lower Michigan by sometime this evening,
kicking off more rain showers, and some thunder through Saturday 
morning. With all of the moisture that has been associated with 
this system, we will be continuing with the fog and low clouds 
this morning. We'll have a break from fog by 14z-15z. With the 
clearing, the atmosphere will destabilize, allowing for some 
thunderstorms, and rain showers. Then after 00z, as we lose the 
heating for the day, the fog will set back in with the low clouds.
Saturday may the end of this cycle, as another system approaches 
the region. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Today through Saturday night...The winds and waves through the 
forecast period look to remain sub-small craft. However, with a low 
moving from N Illinois into the lower Michigan between this morning 
and Saturday afternoon, fog, rain showers, and a few isolated 
thunderstorms will be the main issue through Saturday morning. 
Saturday afternoon, another low will approach the region, and will 
increase the winds through Saturday night. For now, it looks like 
there would be a small chance of small craft criteria wind gusts 
between 09z/Sun and 12z/Sun with the small craft winds more during 
Sunday. 


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...JL