181 
FXUS65 KPUB 080950
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Southwest flow aloft will be increasing today ahead of the broad 
upper-level trough making its way towards our area, along with the 
associated low pressure system. The transition of the trough axis 
will allow for more moisture to pool into the Four Corners region 
and move into western Colorado. The southwest flow will assist in 
providing some orographic lift, which will result in some showers, 
both rain and snow, over the higher elevations of the San Juan 
Mountains and parts of the Continental Divide today and tonight. 
While winds will be increasing both aloft and near the surface 
today, conditions for fire weather risks are still marginal, given 
the synoptic-scale wind pattern won't be strong enough to push 
things over critical thresholds. However, there are several places 
near the Palmer Divide and the San Luis Valley that may get close 
this afternoon. High temperatures today will be, once again, above 
average, with mid-high 80s over the plains and mid-70s over the 
valleys. Tonight will be fairly mild and cool, with 40s-50s over the 
area. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021


...Several concerns for this long term forecast period:

1. Synoptically evident RED FLAG day Saturday.

2. Strong winds along mtn/plains interface Saturday.

3. How much precip Sunday?

4. Hard Freeze San Luis Valley Monday AM/Patchy frost Plains.

5. Which way will the Pacific closed low track TUES/WED? ...

Saturday...

Red Flag conditions are on track for Saturday as a strong 120-140 kt 
jet tracks across the state. This strong jet combined with dry 
adiabatic lapse rates to 600mb will allow for stout mixing to occur 
this day. The combination of the strong surface winds and low RH 
values will allow for rapid fire spread should a fire start. Current 
watch may need to be tweaked to include areas farther west and 
north, and will likely be upgraded later today. 

Areas along the southern Sangre De Cristos south of La Veta pass may 
be very windy Saturday, especially in the morning. 

Sunday...

Models have continued to trend drier regarding precip for the area 
on this day, and pops are now 20 to 30 percent lower for the areas 
along the CO/NM border. I would not be surprised if these values 
continue to drop as forcing does not look all that favorable for 
widespread precip. However, confidence remains high that it will be 
sharply cooler Sunday as compared to Saturday. 

Widespread freezing temperatures are likely to occur across all of 
the San Luis Valley (SLV) Sunday morning, but values will likely be 
in the 28-30F range.

Monday...

Monday morning will start off rather chilly across the region. A 
HARD FREEZE is likely for the SLV Monday morning with temperatures 
in the mid 20s across all of the valley floor. The plain will likely 
be in the mid 30s to around 40F, but patchy freezing temps will be 
possible. 

On Monday, forecast area will be in-between systems, as a quick 
short wave ridge will move across the region on this day. Likewise 
anticipate dry weather to dominate on this day with pleasant 
max temperatures in the 70s plains and 60s valleys. 

Tuesday...

Lots of uncertainty this day. Confidence is high that a significant 
system will track across the Rockies, but the location of this track 
is quite uncertain. The deterministic output varies greatly between 
the Euro and GFS, with the GFS being much farther south an d slower 
while the Euro is much farther north and quicker. Looking at the 
ensemble statistics, the pop/temp numbers show wide distributions so 
confidence is very low on what is going to happen on this event. For 
now believe it is best to play the "middle of the road" with the 
central mtns likely receiving the first decent snow of the year 
while the plains will likely remain dry and very windy. With this 
said, if the more southern solution occurs, then the plains, 
especially the Palmer Divide, could see some significant sensible 
weather Tuesday night. 

For the remainder of next week, expect dry and seasonable 
conditions. There will likely be an increasing chance of 
some freezing temps on the plains during this period. \/Hodanish
 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

VFR will persist at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB over the next 24 hours. 
Some mid-high level clouds will set in over KALS and KCOS tomorrow 
afternoon but will not decrease conditions. Gusty winds 25-30 mph 
are expected at KALS and KCOS tomorrow after 20Z as well.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday 
evening for COZ227-228-231>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO