877 
FXUS63 KGLD 080821
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
221 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday morning) 
Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Oct 7 2021

RAP analysis has an upper level low over the upper Midwest with a 
developing longwave trough just off the California coast as weak 
ridge is over the central High Plains. The ridging continues the 
current pattern of dry conditions with little cloud cover. Winds 
have increased due to daytime mixing as a surface low cross over 
SW Kansas bringing isolated wind gusts of 20+ knots to locales 
along and south of Interstate 70. An area of clouds moves through
during the overnight hours as winds fall below 10 knots across 
the area. The area of clouds is anticipated to keep the 
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s despite the light winds. 

Friday, southerly flow dominates as the trough moves further inland 
over. Dry conditions continue with elevated fire weather concerns 
along and west of Highway 27 as RH values fall into the lower teens 
with winds from the south around 10 knots, with locally higher wind 
gusts possible through the afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures 
are forecasted to be in the low to mid 80s across the area. Clouds 
increase during the late afternoon and evening hours west to east 
limiting the overnight low temperatures to the low to upper 50s. 

Saturday, the ridge moves to the east of the area as the above 
mentioned trough moves closer to the area from the west and an 
approaching cold front from the northwest. A strong jet through the 
atmospheric profile will present in part to the trough as strong 
westerly downslope winds will cause strong surface winds along with 
warm temperatures. Temperatures for the day will be the tricky part 
based on the speed of the cold front, behind the cold front 
afternoon high temperatures look to be in the mid 70s to low 80s. 
Ahead of the front where the southerly flow coupled with the 
downslope winds interact will see afternoon high temperatures in the 
mid 80s to perhaps low 90s in a few locales. A few record highs may 
be in jeopardy with Hill City currently forecasted at 89 and their 
record high for the day is 90 set back in 1965. Moving on to the 
winds, using the NBM 90th Percentile as guidance, am currently 
expecting sustained SSW winds of 20 knots (perhaps higher) with 
gusts of 30-35 knots possible throughout the afternoon, some 
localized areas of blowing dust are also possible. These strong 
winds coupled with the warm temperatures and the dry conditions 
will lead to near critical fire weather conditions for locations 
along and south of Interstate 70 Saturday afternoon. If a fire 
were to get started it would spread quickly with the strong winds 
and dry conditions. A Fire Weather Watch was considered for 
counties south of Interstate 70, but held off for now as RH 
values continue to show Upper teens to low 20s for the area. As 
the cold front and trough move through this will bring a slight 
chance for rain showers Saturday night through Sunday morning. 
Currently, the best forcing looks to remain just south and west of
the CWA but a small wiggle to the north would increase the 
chances especially along and south of Interstate 70. Overnight 
lows for Saturday night into Sunday morning are forecasted to be 
in the low 40s to low 50s with colder temperatures located over 
eastern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) 
Issued at 220 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021

The long term period is generally dry short of the system that will 
move through the area Tuesday/Wednesday. Temperatures are expected 
to be near to below average for much of the period.

Monday starts out with clear and dry conditions as the Tri-State 
area sits under small amplitude ridging aloft inbetween the previous 
trough and the new one forming and moving through the Western CONUS. 
Temperatures look to reach the mid to upper 70's. Elevated to near 
critical fire weather conditions may be possible mainly along and 
west of the Colorado border as winds gust to near 25mph and RH drops 
to near 20%.

Tuesday on gets a bit uncertain due to the next upper trough and 
system that would be moving in from the west. Guidance currently has 
the upper trough swinging through the four corners during the day on 
Tuesday with a surface low taking shape just east of the Front 
Range. This setup would still have the Tri-State area warm into the 
mid to upper 70's across much of the area but could see an increase 
in the winds as the pressure gradient tightens and the flow 
increases aloft. The dry conditions would then give way to chances 
for showers and storms during the evening and nighttime hours as the 
surface low and associated cold front move to the east and moisture 
gets pulled into the area from the south.

As mentioned above there is some uncertainty as guidance has been 
inconsistent on the placement of the trough and surface low as well 
as the depth of the trough. Ensemble anomalies show this as well 
with rather large anomalies in the depth in the trough. There is 
less anomaly with the location but still enough worth considering 
for a slower and/or more southerly track. With the winds, 
precipitation, and temperatures fairly dependent on the track, the 
current forecasted temps, wind, and precip may change in the coming 
days. However, looking across the difference solutions, there is a 
high chance the area would see stronger than average winds, some 
precipitation, and cooler temperatures as this system passes.

Wednesday will depend on how the trough and low move off to the 
north/northeast as the area could be in the dry slot of the low or 
be in the region of wrap around moisture. Current forecast mirrors 
more of the wrap around solution where the temperatures would be 
cooler in the low to mid 60's and some light rain is present early 
in the day. But if the dry solution prevails, the daylight hours 
would see mostly clear skies and temperatures could warm to be near 
70 or in the 70's.

Thursday and Friday are currently forecasted to have the Central 
CONUS under a broad trough aloft with the area under northwest flow. 
While that could give the area some instability, the forecast calls 
for dry air to move in from the southwest once the prior trough and 
surface low lift off to the northeast. This will help the area stay 
dry and mostly clear though temperatures could remain a bit cooler 
than average depending on how much cooler air moves in behind the 
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 936 PM MDT Thu Oct 7 2021

VFR conditions will prevail at KGLD and KMCK through the forecast
period. Winds will remain light and variable overnight and through
the morning, increasing to around 5-10kts from the southeast in
the afternoon.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...AW