056 
FXUS63 KOAX 080758
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
258 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Summary: 

Summerlike weather the next couple of days with near record
temperatures on Saturday. Chance of rain Monday, and then
potentially record rainfall on Wednesday with windy conditions, 
along with potential severe weather.

Today through Monday:

Weak ridging aloft and southeasterly surface flow brings summerlike
temperatures back to the area. High temps today could reach 80-85,
and then into the mid 80s to near 90 on Saturday. We will see 
increasing cirrus cloudiness Saturday on the south side of a 
vigorous trough moving out of the northern Rockies, which could 
hold temps down in the upper 70s to lower 80s across northeast NE.
But areas along/south of I80 could see near record readings 
tomorrow. The record at Omaha on Saturday is 88 set in 1928, with 
a forecast of 87. The record at Lincoln is 90 set 1928 and 1921, 
with 89 forecast. 

The trough will push a cold front into the area Saturday night, 
but the bulk of any precipitation should remain across the 
northern Plains, although model blends support a slight chance of 
showers along the NE/KS border Saturday evening. High temps Sunday
will be much cooler, back into the 70-75 range, and still 3-6 
degrees above normal. That frontal boundary should still be in 
southeast NE Sunday afternoon, so will have a slight chance of 
showers along it as a couple models suggest some spotty precip.

A digging trough coming out the central Rockies should develop
showers and thunderstorms across KS Sunday evening. Precip chances
on the northern edge of this strong closed low could edge 
northward into southeast NE and southwest IA Sunday night, with 
the northern edge pushing up toward I80 by Monday morning into 
Monday afternoon. Northeast NE will likely not see any precip at 
all from this system. The heaviest rain should fall just south of 
our forecast area, but some areas in southeast NE and southwest IA
could see a half to three quarters of an inch of rain or more, 
while Omaha and Lincoln may see less than one quarter inch.

Tuesday through Wednesday:

The next more impactful trough will affect us Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. We've been looking at this robust trough
for a few days now. We could see the earliest shower chances move
into the forecast area Tuesday afternoon on the leading warm air
advection wing, along with breezy southeasterly surface flow. 
Showers and storms become widespread across the region by 
Wednesday morning as a strong closed upper low, nearly vertically 
stacked with a significant surface low move, to north central NE 
and eventually the Tri State region of IA/NE/SD Monday afternoon. 
We'll remain on the warm and west side of this system with locally
heavy rains possible, and in fact, based on WPC/NBM QPF 
forecasts, we could set daily rainfall records at all three 
primary climate sites. Previous rain records for Wednesday are 
1.27" in Omaha, 1.13" in Lincoln, and 0.70" at Norfolk. Windy 
conditions also Wednesday with southeasterly winds at 20-30 mph. 
And while it's still too far out for the details, we'll also be 
watching closely for severe weather potential, especially if a 
triple point develops in the surface frontal structure with a 
substantially strong, stacked low pressure system. And then we 
will experience equally strong west northwest winds on the back 
side of the low pressure system with any lingering showers ending 
before daybreak Thursday. 

Thursday through Friday:

Dry weather expected to close out the workweek with seasonable 
temperatures in the 60s.

Frost/Freeze Potential:

Looking at long range trends from the GEFS and EPS through the
10-15 day period, we're not seeing any strong signal for
widespread frost or freeze conditions through October 23rd. 
Favored locations in northeast NE could hit the upper 30s Saturday
morning Oct 16, but otherwise, still no widespread frost or 
freeze in the upcoming 15 day period. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1130 CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

A few low clouds possible overnight tonight at FL025, but expect 
to be widely isolated / scattered. Patchy fog still a concern and
some reduced visibility is observed in parts of Iowa and Missouri,
but most guidance keeps it east of TAF sites and confidence 
hasn't grown enough to include in current forecast. Certainly 
possible that fog overachieves for a third straight night 
requiring TAFs to be amended later.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Nicolaisen