675 
FXUS63 KMQT 080531
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
131 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT THU OCT 7 2021

Satellite has shown that cloud cover has decreased over the U.P. 
this afternoon, but thicker cloud coverage is looking to come 
overhead sometime later this afternoon/evening as a closed low 
approaches from our south. Looks like we're going to see essentially 
another repeat of yesterday in regards to temp today, with highs 
looking to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some showers could begin 
to make their way into Menominee as early as around 6 PM CDT. 
However, it seems more likely that showers won't start until closer 
to midnight along the WI border. Given that the closed/dying lows 
such as this one typically underperform on rainfall, expecting only 
light rain rates and small rain totals tonight through Friday. 
However, CAMs are picking up a band of showers that looks to move 
generally from south to north across the area late tonight. May see 
some moderate rainfall rates at times in this band given the 
synoptic forcing (see vorticity at 700mb in the GFS), but, again, I 
doubt it due to closed lows having a history of underperforming. 
Also, may see a few rumbles of thunder here and there tonight and 
Friday, as there is some very limited MUCAPE shown the models; 
however, I do have my doubts if we even get any thunder and 
lightning to occur, especially tonight. As for low temps tonight, 
they should be in the 50s for the most part, with the 60s possible 
at spots near Lake MI/Green Bay. Once the band of showers moves 
through the U.P. Friday morning, we may see some showers here and 
there across Upper MI in the late morning to afternoon hours behind 
the initial band Friday. However, these showers should be fairly 
limited given the lack of forcing and modest amounts of instability. 
High temps Friday should be about what they are today, as some weak 
WAA should counteract the mostly cloudy skies and rain showers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT THU OCT 7 2021

Overall, the long term period is expected to be warmer than normal 
with near normal precipitation. This results from a synoptic scale 
patterns characterized by a western trough and eastern ridge. A 
series of low amplitude shortwave troughs track north/northeast 
along the western periphery of east-CONUS ridging. Surface lows 
associated with each shortwave seem likely to track to our west, 
which limits impacts to isolated/scattered rain showers across our 
CWA. 

A few showers may be lingering across our area at 00Z Saturday, but 
coverage should be limited to the eastern CWA. Meanwhile, a more 
energetic shortwave tracks onto the Northern Plains with a surface 
low tracking north-northeast across eastern SD at 00Z Sunday. This 
surface low makes its closest approach to our CWA on Sunday evening 
as it crosses the border into Ontario. A few showers are possible 
along and south of the warm front, but coverage and precip amounts 
should be greatest over Lake Superior (especially the north shore). 
Gusty southerly winds are expected south of the warm front on Sunday.

By Sunday evening, a secondary surface low develops across Oklahoma 
and tracks north/northeast along the remnant cool front on Monday. 
The 12Z GEFS - among other guidance - indicates this secondary low 
pressure weakens as it tracks northeast across our CWA on Tuesday. 
This should result in widespread but generally light precipitation 
as the precipitation shield decays overhead.

The first strong Plains cyclone of the fall season appears to spin 
up Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Central Plains. This 
potentially intense storm tracks northeast towards our area late 
next week. It's difficult to say with confidence what the local 
impacts will be, but gusty winds and another round of rain showers 
seem likely at this time. A cooler but not cold air mass moves in 
behind the storm next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 131 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021

Approaching disturbance from the s will bring sct shra to the area 
thru today, especially into the morning. Along with the sct shra, 
LIFR conditions appear likely to develop at IWD/CMX/SAW, beginning 
in the next couple of hrs at SAW and prior to daybreak at IWD/CMX. 
Upsloping se winds at SAW and e winds at CMX lead to higher 
confidence in LIFR conditions at those terminals. Expect some 
improvement to low-end MVFR at IWD and CMX during the aftn. 
Conditions will probably fall back again this evening. SAW will 
likely remain IFR or worse throughout the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 300 PM EDT THU OCT 7 2021

Winds of 20 kts or less are expected across Lake Superior until 
Sunday morning as a ridging from a high pressure near New England 
erodes to a troughing pattern this weekend. Could see some patchy 
fog over the lake this afternoon into Friday morning, as winds 
remain fairly light and rainfall from an approaching disturbance is 
not expected to reach the lake until Friday morning. On Sunday, a 
Colorado low looks to move a warm front over the lake. This should 
bring 15 to 20-25 kt southeasterly winds over the eastern lake 
Sunday. As the cold front of the low moves over Sunday night, we 
could see south to southwesterly winds up to 25 kts across the lake. 
Winds should become 20 kts or less Monday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...TAP