449 
FXUS64 KEPZ 080516
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1116 PM MDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds light, 
variable, and terrain driven overnight. Westerly winds become 
10G20KT after 18Z for all terminals except KELP, which will remain
at less than 10 knots. Wind reduces to less than 10 knots after 
0Z. Ceilings SKC-BKN250.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MDT Thu Oct 7 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather continues through Saturday. Then two systems 
will be affecting our weather. The first one on Saturday brings 
breezy conditions that will be followed by cooler temperatures on 
Sunday. The second system brings windy conditions on Tuesday, and 
the subsequent cold front brings colder temperatures. Area mountains 
including the Gila Region and the Sacramento Mountains may see their 
first widespread freeze of the season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
Quiet conditions ongoing across the CWA with some higher level 
clouds building into the area. Drier air has settled into the region 
and it's evident by looking at PWs. Values are currently ranging 
from 0.4-0.6 inches and subsidence from a strengthening ridge to our 
south is inhibiting convection. Conditions will continue to be quiet 
and dry into the overnight hours. Breezy winds this afternoon will 
become light and variable after sunset. Low temperatures overnight 
will dip into mid 50s and 60s territory, which continues to be above 
normal for early October. 

The warm and dry weather continues for Friday as well. Breezier 
winds can also be expected, with northern counties potentially 
seeing sustained winds up to 15-20 mph through the afternoon. Mostly 
clear conditions will arrive in the morning hours as upper level 
moisture travels out of the area. Overall warm, sunny, and dry 
conditions are in store for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
The upper ridge that has been keeping warm temperatures across the 
Borderland will be slowly push east with the approach of an open 
wave to the Desert Southwest. Either way, we will still see warm 
conditions on Saturday. The main hazard on Saturday will be breezy
westerly winds due to a surface lee-cyclone in northeastern 
Colorado. The subsequent tightening of the pressure gradient will 
lead to gusty winds in the afternoon hours, especially over the 
eastern slopes of area mountains. Breezy conditions persist on 
Sunday with the passage of the pacific front associated with an 
upper trough. However, winds should be weaker on Sunday. Also 
temperatures will be cooler. Temps drop around 10 to 15 degrees 
compared to Saturday. There is a slight chance for rain showers 
along area mountains along with the frontal passage.

Once this first trough moves through, we will be in a transition 
from one system to the next. We remain under a broad upper wave 
encompassing most of the western side of the country. The next 
disturbance swings down from the Pacific Northwest along this wave. 
It will become a closed low near the Four Corners area by Tuesday 
morning. 

Tuesday becomes our most active weather day of the week. The closed 
low passes through northern NM. The combination of lee-cyclogenesis 
associated to this upper disturbance along with the Pac cold front 
passing through the area will lead to windy to very windy conditions 
due to the tightening of the pressure gradient near the surface. 
Furthermore, in the upper levels of the atmosphere we have the jet 
stream right over central New Mexico. Although the latest run is 
showing a weaker jet aloft. Currently, we are still observing winds 
in the advisory criteria across the CWA. The strong west-southwest 
winds also bring the possibility for blowing dust. The cold air 
intrusion on Tuesday-Wednesday will lead to the coldest temperatures 
of the week. The Gila region and the Sacramento Mountains will get 
see their first widespread freeze of the season. 

There is a chance for some precipitation with this system, but it is 
expected to happen ahead of the front. Thus, most of it should be 
rain with the highest elevations of area mountains possibly getting 
some flurries. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are in store Friday through Sunday. 
Our next shot at precipitation will be Tuesday as the next system 
rolls through. Each day will be breezy with winds 15-20mph in the 
afternoon through at least Monday. Tuesday still looks to be the 
windiest with areawide sustained winds of 20mph and some mountain 
areas could see up to 40mph with gusts up to 50. MinRHs still seem 
to be too high for fire weather concerns with values in the upper 
teens to around 30 percent. A few areas may be cutting it close, so 
it's still very much worth keeping an eye on. Overall, the next few 
days minRHs will be in the upper teens to 25-30%. Ventilation rates 
will be generally good to excellent. 

&&

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 62  91  60  92 /   0   0   0   0 
Sierra Blanca           58  86  54  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Las Cruces              56  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0 
Alamogordo              58  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloudcroft              45  66  44  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Truth or Consequences   55  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Silver City             53  77  51  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Deming                  53  88  51  87 /   0   0   0   0 
Lordsburg               55  85  53  82 /   0   0   0   0 
West El Paso Metro      64  91  62  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Dell City               56  90  55  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Hancock            61  94  57  95 /   0   0   0   0 
Loma Linda              60  83  57  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Fabens                  61  92  58  92 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Teresa            58  88  55  89 /   0   0   0   0 
White Sands HQ          62  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Jornada Range           58  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Hatch                   56  87  53  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus                58  87  55  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Orogrande               58  88  56  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Mayhill                 50  77  50  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Mescalero               48  76  48  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Timberon                48  75  47  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Winston                 45  80  44  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Hillsboro               55  84  53  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Spaceport               55  85  53  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Lake Roberts            46  77  45  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Hurley                  50  81  48  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Cliff                   48  84  46  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Mule Creek              51  78  49  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Faywood                 53  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Animas                  54  87  51  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Hachita                 54  86  51  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Antelope Wells          54  87  52  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloverdale              54  81  52  80 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/99