322 
FXUS63 KILX 080158
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
858 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into Friday,
as a slow moving upper low drifts across the area. Dense fog is 
expected to form over portions of central and southwest Illinois 
overnight, lifting Friday morning. Temperatures on Friday will 
reach the middle to upper 70s, but highs well into the 80s are 
expected this weekend. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Upper low appears to be centered just northwest of Springfield per
latest water vapor satellite imagery. Convective activity has
diminished some, but persists this evening east of I-57 and around
Peoria/Galesburg. Activity should continue to wane over the next
few hours, but will keep some low PoP's going north of I-74 and
east of I-57 through the night. 

Concern is shifting toward potential for dense fog. Nighttime
microphysics satellite imagery showing partial clearing around the
center of the low. With light winds and the added moisture from
the heavier rain totals of the last 24 hours, fog appears to be
more of an issue than earlier projections. Jacksonville airport is
already down to a half mile, and the high-res models show an
expanding area of dense fog after midnight. Question will be how
much expansion takes place, with the HRRR/LAMP/RAP suggesting
potentially as far northeast as Champaign and Danville and north
to Peoria. Those fringes have some more concerns with lingering
cloud cover, but further southwest, a Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued from about Havana to Decatur to Effingham westward. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Scattered showers and storms will continue to move across central
and eastern Illinois late this afternoon into this evening. Once
the sun drops this evening, the precip could dissipate some, but
with the upper level low system slowly moving across the area,
some precip will remain likely through the night. By midnight,
most of the precip should have pushed to the north and northeast,
but some lingering showers will remain possible in the northeast
parts of the CWA. Precip will also remain possible tomorrow as the
wrap around area moves across parts of northeast IL. So scattered
showers will be kept in the forecast for the morning with isolated
storms possible in the afternoon. Winds across the area will be
light and variable tonight, and with lots of low level moisture
and possible breaks in the clouds, patchy fog should develop
across the entire CWA overnight and continue into Fri AM.
Overnight lows should be around 60, but temps will rebound back
into the middle to upper 70s for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Dry and very warm conditions are expected through the weekend as
ridging builds into the area. Afternoon highs Sat and Sun will
reach into the mid to upper 80s and this will be pushing 10-15
degrees above normal. With the warmest day being Sun, these temps
will push records. Records for select cities for Sunday are
included in the Climate section below. 

The next system will begin to affect the western parts of the CWA
late Sunday night, but the best chance for more precip will be Mon
and Monday night. This system looks a little stronger and definitely
expecting more showers and storms with it. After a break in the
precip for Tue, the chance of more showers and storms returns for
late Tue night through Thur. 

Above normal temps in the 70s to lower 80s will continue through
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Convection continues to rotate around an upper low. As of 23Z,
most of the thunder activity was largely away from the terminals,
but have continued to mention a VCTS at KPIA/KCMI for a couple
more hours until sunset. 

Concern going into the overnight hours will be fog potential,
especially where any significant clearing takes place. Rainfall
amounts the last 24 hours have been heavy but more on the
scattered side, but the moisture should help feed some fog
development. Have continued to mention IFR or low MVFR
ceilings/visibilities late tonight into Friday morning, though
more than one model is suggesting the potential for dense fog.
Will continue to evaluate this with the updated guidance over the
next few hours. 


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Record high temperatures are possible on Sunday. Here are the
current records and forecast highs: 

Sunday October 10
                Record High         Forecast High
Bloomington..... 87 (2010) 				85
Champaign....... 86 (1962) 				87 
Charleston...... 88 (2010) 				86 
Decatur......... 89 (1938) 				87 
Galesburg....... 87 (1962) 				84 
Jacksonville.... 90 (1963) 				86 
Lincoln......... 87 (1962) 				86 
Olney........... 89 (1928) 				87 
Peoria.......... 87 (1938) 				87 
Springfield..... 89 (1963) 				87

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for 
ILZ040>042-047>054-061-066.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
CLIMATE...Auten