622 
FXUS61 KBUF 080026
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
826 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will generally remain in control of our weather 
tonight. Similar to last few nights, fog could be an issue again 
tonight. An approaching frontal system will bring a few showers to 
the far western areas through Friday and to the rest of the region 
during the weekend. Temperatures will continue to average well above 
normal through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly fair and dry weather with above normal temps can be expected 
tonight, as high pressure will remain in control of the region. The 
only exception is across far western Chautauqua County where a few 
showers could occur. 

Stratus and areas of fog, currently along the southern shore of Lake 
Ontario into far northern Niagara and Orleans counties (though still 
north of Niagara Falls or Medina) may advect farther across the 
Niagara Frontier. Southern extent of this fog bank is still not 
certain. Even away from this though over the rest of the forecast 
area, could see the more typical radiation cooling type fog as temps 
cool and low-level inversion forms. All fog will diminish around 
daybreak on Friday but some clouds could linger. 

Closed upper level low across northern Illinois on Friday will 
slowly drift northeast across eastern Michigan through Friday night. 
This system will support increasing chances of showers across far 
Western New York on Friday, and across most of the forecast area by 
Friday night. A bit more cloud cover on Friday, but temperatures 
will remain above normal with highs in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A shortwave will move across the Upper Great Lakes during this 
period. The feature will drive a weak...moisture starved front 
through a well established ridge that has been part of a highly 
amplified pattern for the past several days. While this will support 
widely scattered showers over our area Saturday and Saturday 
night...the vast majority of that time will be rain free. 

The aforementioned longwave ridge will become re-established over 
the eastern conus Sunday and Monday with fair dry weather expected 
for our forecast area. Temps through the period will average well 
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main story continues to be the well above average warmth that will 
continue into and through the long term period.

Ridging aloft and surface high pressure centered over New England 
will provide dry and warm conditions Monday night through Tuesday, 
although forcing owed to a 30-35 knot LLJ out ahead of a cold front 
approaching from the west may produce a couple light showers across 
western NY during the latter part of Tuesday.

Upper level trough and associated surface cold front progged to 
cross the region sometime Tuesday night and/or Wednesday bringing 
the next chance for some showers to western and northcentral NY. 
High pressure then returns drying things out toward the tail end of 
the period.

As previously mentioned, temperatures will be well above normal 
through the period. Tuesday will be the warmest day as highs climb 
generally into the low to mid 70s, with some upper 70s and upper 60s 
in the typically warmer and cooler spots across western and 
northcentral NY. Cloud cover and possible showers Wednesday followed 
by weak cool advection in the wake of the cold frontal passage 
Thursday will lower temperatures several degrees, with daytime highs 
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is still well above average as 
we approach mid October.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still have VFR conditions at all TAF sites to open the evening. 
However, fog and stratus over the Niagara Peninsula to south shore 
of Lake Ontario may spread south into KIAG this evening. If it 
occurs, LIFR conditions would occur. For now though, uncertain on 
southern extent of fog bank so have placed a mention of BCFG 
(patches of fog in the vicinity) in the TAF. 

Meanwhile at the other TAF sites, nighttime cooling, light winds and 
developing low-level inversion may result in patchy fog and low 
clouds overnight with localized MVFR or IFR conditions. Only other 
issue is a few showers may move into far WNY in advance of a 
shortwave and frontal boundary.  

Lots of low moisture with a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs expected during 
Friday morning. These will give way to some improvement Friday 
afternoon with mainly VFR. A chance of showers west of KROC during 
the day Friday with the approaching shortwave. 

Outlook... 

Friday night and Saturday...MVFR with scattered showers. 
Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
East-northeast winds will be light tonight then increase to 10-15 
knots on Friday. Strongest winds will be across Western Lake Ontario 
during the afternoon with some enhancement due to the lake breeze.

Winds shift to the southeast and increase Friday night and may 
approach small craft criteria across eastern Lake Ontario late 
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/JLA/RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...Apffel/JLA