718 
FXUS65 KMSO 061907
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
107 PM MDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...Light rain showers are presenting on radar along the
Idaho and Washington border. This is the present position of a
relatively dry cold front. The main threat today will be winds
both associated with the front and from rain showers. Generally,
west to northwest winds will gust up to 20 mph. However, as these
showers move into drier areas such as southwest Montana late this
afternoon, stronger gusts from these showers are possible. Some 
energy is forecasted to be available this afternoon, so an 
isolated thunderstorm in southwest Montana is possible.

Today has started a cooldown that will bring temperatures back to
normal by Thursday. Showers will continue tomorrow mainly in
southwest Montana, total accumulation of up to 0.10". For outdoor
enthusiasts, snowlevels will be dropping between 6 to 7000 feet. 
No real accumulation is expected, simply be prepared for raw 
conditions.

Saturday is expected to be a crisp fall day with plentiful
sunshine and temperatures in the mid to upper 50s in Western
Montana. 

Our next system will drop out of Canada on Sunday. The main trough
is forecast to move south and west of the Northern Rockies. An
associated cold front will move through our area Sunday evening.
Expect southwesterly winds during the afternoon and if your plans
include boating please use caution on area lakes. 

This is a very cold system and temperatures by Monday will be 10
degrees below normal. A hard freeze can be expected in areas of
western Montana that have yet to receive one. For that reason, any
winterizing of sprinklers systems should be finished by Sunday. 

Monday night into Tuesday, snow levels are expected to crash into
valleys. Confidence is increasing that snow will happen at area 
mountain passes and higher valleys of southwest Montana. The exact
track of the weather system as it moves east is still uncertain, 
so any impacts to roadways is unclear. A track closer to 
southwest Montana could allow for 3 to 4 inches of snow for 
elevations above 5000 feet, less than 20 percent probable. Keep 
checking back to future forecasts for the exact evolution of the 
system. 

&&

.AVIATION...A relatively dry cold front will move across the 
region today and will bring westerly winds, gusting to 20 knots at
MSO and GPI. The front will be slow to get to BTM and SMN as 
showers with gusty winds and possibly an isolated thunderstorm 
could impact those terminals between 06/2100Z and 07/0100Z. On 
Thursday more showers are possible at both SMN and BTM.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$