483 
FXUS63 KEAX 061804
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
104 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 239 AM CDT WED OCT 6 2021

Key Messages: 

 -Isolated rain chances for central and southern MO late morning
  through the afternoon. Eastern KS and KC Metro plus surrounding
  areas may see an isolated sprinkly, but is otherwise 
  anticipated to remain dry.
 -Isolates showers possible in northern Missouri Thursday morning.
 -Dry and unseasonably warm on Friday and Saturday; potential for
  elevated fire weather concerns Saturday due to higher temps and
  gusting SW winds.

...Discussion...

Water vapor imagery this morning clearly depicts a large, swirling 
upper-level low with its center over much of Arkansas. In this 
imagery along with Clean IR, you can see this feature pulling in 
moisture from the gulf, which will help fuel rain chances today into 
Thursday. As this low traverses farther north into southern Missouri, 
isentropic ascent still appears to be the primary forcing for any 
showers today. Models have trended a little later in the day for the 
arrival of rain in our forecast area. Weak forcing will bring rain 
showers as early as mid to late morning for southern Missouri.
However, rain showers look to arrival closer to late morning/early 
afternoon for central Missouri. The best chance for showers and weak 
thunderstorms is still anticipated for southern and central 
Missouri, with the majority (if not all) of rain activity staying 
east of the KC Metro and eastern Kansas. Severe weather is not 
expected with any of these storms as forcing remains weak with model 
agreement on lower MLCAPE values between 200-500 J/kg. Temps today 
will range into the upper 50s this morning and into the lower 70s 
this afternoon as cloud cover should keep us shielded from any 
significant warming. 

As this low moves farther north over the course of Wednesday, 
additional scattered showers are possible into Wednesday evening and 
overnight into Thursday morning. While the chance for rain still 
remains low for the KC Metro and surrounding areas, northern 
Missouri has a better chance to see a few isolated showers as this 
low passes through. Model agreement on rain chances for Thursday has 
been all over the place, with the newest trend keeping isolated 
showers in the eastern portion of our CWA until Thursday afternoon. 
By Thursday afternoon into the evening, this upper-level low is 
projected to glide off to the north into Illinois, taking with it 
any rain chances. Dry weather is highly likely by Thursday night. An 
upper-level shortwave ridge will guide this low out of the area, 
providing the region with dry and warmer weather Friday and 
Saturday. Models are starting to hint at not only crispy highs in 
the lower 90s for Saturday, but strong gusting winds as a mid-level 
jet streak is projected to develop over eastern Kansas and much of 
Missouri.  While its still too early to nail down the exact 
conditions, models are projecting southwest wind gusts up to 50-55 
MPH. If this ends up coming to fruition, there may be elevated fire 
weather concerns across the western portion of our CWA who didn't 
see any rain showers over the week.  Next chance for rain looks to 
come by Sunday as upper-level ridging is replaced by an incoming 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT WED OCT 6 2021

MVFR CIGs are holding on at all terminals, but should improve
to high end MVFR to low end VFR within the next couple hours. A
few isolated showers will be possible this afternoon, but coverage 
should be so sparse to preclude even mention of VCSH. Low end MVFR
CIGs should set in overnight, with areas of fog also lowering
VSBYs to MVFR. Periods of CIGs and/or VSBYs will be possible 
early Thursday morning, but have elected to keep the TAF MVFR for
now. Fog should mix out by mid to late Thursday morning with
conditions returning to VFR toward the end of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Klaus
Aviation...BMW