041 
FXUS64 KBMX 061738 AAA
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&


.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021/

Through Thursday. 

Different day, same verse. Rain is here and flooding concerns  
remain. With a stalled front to our west and a low pressure system 
sliding along and ahead of the front, the southerly flow will 
remain for the time and period of showers and embedded storms will
continue through the next 36 plus hours. Although the coverage on
Thursday will be limited to the eastern half to eastern two-thirds
of the state. The main upper low has retreated to Arkansas this 
morning. We will continue the Flash Flood Watch as is but the next
shift may evaluate the need for Thursday in the east. Did have to
raise PoPs on Thursday to account for a slightly slower system. 
We may be able to clear some counties this evening, thus the 
reason for not extending at this time. 

With the low further to our west and in the process of opening up 
before being ejected to the east on Thursday, we do have the 
potential for some stronger storms in the afternoon. Of course this 
is highly dependent if we can realize the instability that may be
in place if we get some breaks in the clouds and rain. This also 
depends on how wide the system in place begins to expand today as 
well. Currently we have one band that has developed south of us 
and will swing in through and across the I-85 corridor, much like 
early Tuesday morning. This activity will likely kick of 
additional development late morning across the central sections of
the area. So again how robust can the activity get if we do not 
realize the instability in place? Right now the confidence is too 
low to include severe weather into the HWO as flooding remains the
main topic, but strong to marginally severe storms can not be 
completely ruled out, especially if MUCAPEs are much higher than 
forecast. Hopefully we can get a balloon up this morning and get a
better sample of the airmass on top of the area. 

16


.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021/

Thursday night through Tuesday. 

An upper-level trough axis and mid-level dry slot will swing
through Thursday night and Friday, resulting in a drying trend. 
Any lingering showers should be confined to our far eastern 
counties through Friday morning, and the entire forecast area 
should be dry by Friday night.

Height rises and dry conditions are expected over the weekend as 
the upper-level trough moves toward the East Coast and a ridge 
shifts eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Model spread 
increases for Monday and Tuesday, but generally speaking, 
significant moisture recovery ahead of any potential weather 
system appears unlikely. Our forecast remains dry for now. 

87/Grantham

&&


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Widespread low end VFR to upper MVFR CIGs and BKN cloud cover 
were noted on recent VIS sat imgry. Additionally, coverage of SCT 
SHRA has increased across the FA in the last few hours, however 
occurrence of TS has been minimal. Have kept mentions of SHRA at
most terminals w/ addition of VCTS for ocsnl thunder chances. SHRA
is expected to taper off following 00Z Wed night and CIGs should 
deteriorate to IFR levels b/w 00Z-06Z Wed night at most locations
w/ some patchy BR developing after the conclusion of precip. 
Condns are anticipated to begin improving Thurs morning. 

/232/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly cloudy skies and high rain chances will continue through 
Wednesday night with a potential for heavy rainfall. Drier 
conditions will slowly move in from the west on Thursday and 
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  77  64  77  62 /  90  90  80  50  20 
Anniston    67  77  66  79  64 /  80  90  80  60  20 
Birmingham  67  78  66  79  63 / 100  90  70  30  10 
Tuscaloosa  68  78  66  80  63 /  90  80  40  20   0 
Calera      66  77  66  78  63 /  90  90  60  30  10 
Auburn      66  77  67  77  65 /  70  90  80  60  30 
Montgomery  69  80  67  80  65 /  80  90  70  40  20 
Troy        68  80  67  81  65 /  70  90  70  50  20 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None. 

&&

$$