842 
FXUS63 KABR 061726 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 1020 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

The main issue for today will be the fire weather conditions west of 
the Missouri River. Despite min rhs not quite making it to 20 
percent or lower, strong south winds and very dry fuels along with 
coordination with UNR, decided to go with a Red Flag Warning for the 
counties west of the Missouri River this afternoon into the early 
evening. Min rhs should fall to between 20 to 25 percent with south 
winds mixing out into the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts to 35 mph or 
higher. The hot, dry, and windy index (HDWI), the Bear Creek RAWS 
showing an ERC (Energy Release Component) above the 90th percentile, 
SPC's elevated fire weather outlook, and harvest considerations were 
also used in the decision to go with a Red Flag Warning. Otherwise, 
today will be another sunny day with breezy/windy conditions across 
the cwa. With cooler 85h temperatures for today, high temperatures 
will also be a little lower. The surface pressure gradient remains 
tight into tonight and Thursday. Expect south winds to decrease some 
tonight with mild overnight lows in the 50s. Thursday will again be 
a breezy/windy day mainly east of the river with south winds across 
the cwa with a cool front pushing into western sd. As a result, 
there will be more clouds moving in/developing into Thursday 
afternoon and may hold temperatures down some. Highs should be in 
the mid 70s to the lower 80s Thursday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Still watching two storm systems in the extended period, each 
bringing good chances for rainfall across the region. First system 
still on track to move northeast across the northern plains Friday 
night through Saturday night. Swath of highest QPF seems to be 
lining up in the models from north central SD northeastward into ND. 
This is shown on the GEFS 31-member Ensemble Prob 12-hour Precip 
values of 0.50 and 1 inch. Probability for 1 inch is still somewhat 
low, but values from 20 to 30 percent are showing up across north 
central SD, with much higher values at 0.50 inches. Inherited POP 
grids now have chances from 70 to 80 percent, which seems good at 
this point based on the latest information. 

Focus will then shift to potentially a much larger and stronger 
storm system over the central and northern plains by the middle of 
next week. Although it's Day 7, there is a surprising amount of 
consistency in a solution that brings a deep surface low with 
widespread rainfall northward across the region. Inherited POP grids 
already have likely chances on Day 7. Don't see this very often, but 
will be curious to see future model runs and how they handle this 
system.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.
Southerly winds will be in the 15 to 25 mph range this afternoon,
with gusts up to 40 mph possible across central South Dakota. 

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for 
     SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Parkin