657 
FXUS64 KBRO 061722 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Variable winds will continue for the afternoon until 
easterly winds increase slightly in the early evening hours. 
Variable conditions return overnight with VFR conditions 
prevailing through the period. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period with light and variable winds becoming easterly during the
afternoon hours. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): The 500mb low sitting across the 
Mississippi Delta gradually lifts north into the Ohio River Valley 
as high pressure builds across Deep South Texas. Due to the 
subsidence west of the mid level trough, very comfortable 
conditions will continue locally through Thursday under mostly 
clear skies. Dewpoints from the low 50s to low 60s generally rule,
with min RH values dipping below 30 percent along and west of 
I69C and below 40 percent along and west of I69E. Temperatures 
remain near normal during the afternoons with below normal lows. 
Heat Indices top off in the low to mid 90s. 

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): High pressure at the 
surface and aloft will provide subsidence across deep south Texas 
through much of the period. A 500 mb trough will develop over the 
Pacific Northwest into Rockies and swing eastward into the Plains 
through the weekend. Surface low pressure is expected to develop 
across the northern Texas on Sunday which will allow the pressure 
gradient to strengthen locally. The steady southeast to southerly 
flow should allow some low level moisture return but will not be 
enough to produce elevated rain chances. Above normal temperatures
are expected across the region for the weekend and into early 
next week. 

MARINE (Now through Thursday): Light easterly onshore flow 
continues through the short term as high pressure builds across the 
northern Gulf of Mexico, allowing favorable marine conditions to 
persist through Thursday. Mariners will find a light chop on the bay 
during the afternoon hours, with Gulf seas of 2 feet or less. 

Thursday Night through Sunday: High pressure across the Gulf will 
maintain low seas and light to moderate onshore flow through the 
end of the week. By late Saturday into Sunday the pressure 
gradient will begin to strengthen as a surface low pressure
develops across the Plains. While no Small Craft Advisories are 
expected at this time, winds could increase enough to warrant 
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions on Sunday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  69  87  69  88 /   0   0   0   0 
BROWNSVILLE          70  92  68  91 /   0   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN            67  92  66  90 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN              67  95  65  92 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      66  95  64  95 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  83  77  84 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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65-Soria/Aviation