387 
FXUS63 KSGF 061103
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
603 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)

Scattered showers occurred over much of south central Missouri
overnight as an upper level low pressure system remained
stationary over eastern Arkansas. This feature will continue to
force additional showers and isolated thunderstorms through today,
particularly over areas east of Highway 37. 

Given the cloud cover and precipitation today, temperatures will
be a bit cooler, with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Showers will continue into tonight and Thursday AM, before exiting
east by Thursday PM. Highs on Thursday will be warmer with mid to
upper 70s expected. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) 

A major warming trend will be underway heading into the weekend.
Deep southwest flow aloft influenced by ridging along the 
Mississippi River Valley and long wave troughing across the 
intermountain west. 

Temperatures on Friday will bounce back into the mid and upper
80s. Even warmer readings are expected on Saturday, with highs 
reaching 90 out toward Joplin and Pittsburg. We will need to watch
for possible record highs on Saturday. 

By Sunday an upper level disturbance will shift into the central
Plains, forcing convection out in Kansas and Oklahoma. The Ozarks
should remain dry through Sunday afternoon with highs in the 80s.
However, widespread showers and thunderstorms will eventually
overspread the area Sunday night into Monday morning. 

Cooler and damp conditions are in store for Monday, as the trough
axis shifts directly over the state of Missouri. This feature will
exit Monday night, bringing warmer temperatures back into play for
Tuesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with reduced flight conditions through most of today
and into tonight. Pilots will also need to monitor radar trends,
as showers and thunderstorms will be common across much of
southern Missouri.  

A large upper level low pressure system was centered over eastern
Arkansas this morning and has become nearly stationary. This
feature will continue to influence fog, low ceilings, and
convection. 

IFR conditions are likely through much of the morning. Meanwhile,
thunderstorms will become more numerous through the day as the
airmass becomes more unstable. 

Surface winds will be light and variable. 

Safe Travels. 

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer