651 
FXUS64 KMAF 061041
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings suggest a cu field invof KCNM this afternoon,
but convective temps will be too high for cu elsewhere. A few
high/mid clouds will be possible all terminals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Little change to the short term.  WV imagery show a large upper 
trough over the MS Valley, and a weaker trough over NW AZ, which is 
forecast to eject into the upper midwest and minor out later today. 
As the MS Valley trough moves off to the northeast, ridging will 
build into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in a 
warming trend this week.  Temps today should be a degree or so above 
yesterday's, although the Permian Basin may lose a degree or two due 
to an easterly surface flow component.  Thursday, ridging 
strengthens over the region, increasing thicknesses for a return to 
summer-like temperatures, w/highs thursday afternoon 10-15F above 
normal.  NBM has undercut the warmth a bit, so we'll stay on the 
warm side of it.  W/abundant low-level moisture in place, overnight 
mins will remain 5-10F above normal.  

A weak dryline is forecast to sharpen up over far west texas today 
in response to the upper trough over AZ, w/CAMs developing 
convection along this feature this afternoon.  Some of this activity 
may make it into the far west this afternoon, but it still looks 
isolated at best.  Otherwise, grids remain dry through Thursday. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

An upper trough will be over the western part of the country with 
another trough extending from the Upper Midwest to Florida on 
Friday. This will result in upper ridging over West Texas and 
Southeast New Mexico. A surface trough will develop from Southeast 
New Mexico to the Davis Mountains Friday afternoon with breezy south 
to southwest winds. This will lead to compressional warming and 
temperatures heating up into the 90s across much of the area. Upper 
ridging continues over the region on Saturday with the upper trough 
to the west progressing eastward. Temperatures are expected to be 
slightly warmer on Saturday. The upper trough to the west will begin 
moving over the Plains states on Sunday. This will result in a cold 
front moving into the area. High temperatures on Sunday will depend 
on the timing of the front but are expected to be cooler across most 
of the area. The upper trough will lift northeastward on Monday and 
another upper trough will move over the west coast. High 
temperatures are expected to cool into the 80s across most of the 
area on Monday. The upper trough to the west will move further east 
on Tuesday with breezy south to southwest winds across West Texas 
and Southeast New Mexico. This will result in temperatures warming 
up some from the previous day. The upper trough begins to move over 
the central part of the country next Wednesday and will bring a cold 
front into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. No precipitation
is expected in the long term. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  61  93  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 87  56  92  59 /  10   0   0   0 
Dryden                   91  63  93  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            90  62  95  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           80  60  83  61 /  10   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    86  58  90  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    84  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     88  61  93  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   89  63  93  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     91  61  95  61 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....80
AVIATION...44