501 
FXUS62 KILM 061015
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
615 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms will gradually increase this week as tropical
moisture moves into the region. Above normal temperatures are 
expected much of this week, particularly morning lows. Unsettled
weather will continue into early next week as a wave of low 
pressure meanders off of the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper ridge amplification will tend to squelch deep convection, and 
maintain above normal temperatures this period. Better rain chances 
to reside across NE SC due to slightly stronger upper diffluence 
and higher precipitable water values. Tropical wave offshore to
lift north tonight into Thursday, enhancing shower chances 
along the coast, before ejecting to the NE Thursday afternoon. 
There may be a weak surface low embedded in this feature as it 
exits the picture.

Local pressure gradient slightly pinched, will bring NE wind gusts 
to 20 mph near the coast today and Thursday. This will generate a 
longshore current in the surfzone, while bringing slightly more low 
level stability over land, but not a lot because sea surface 
temps remain mild with enough absolute humidity available to 
spawn isolated convective chances most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cutoff low in the mid to upper levels will be lifting up 
through the Upper Great Lakes Thurs night into Fri, leaving an 
open trough extending down to the Gulf coast which will traverse
across the Southeast through Fri. At the same time a wave of 
low pressure at the sfc will maintain an onshore, mainly 
northeasterly flow in the low levels as it meanders off the 
Carolina coast. With the upper trough axis to the west through 
Fri, enhanced lift and deeper layer moisture will exist over the
area. Overall, expect unsettled weather with decent rain 
chances, especially through late Fri into Fri night. Should see 
higher end QPF possible with enhanced lift. Temps will be 
running above normal, with overnight lows in the 60s and daytime
highs reaching into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deep mid to upper trough over the Southeast on Sat will shift 
off the coast as ridge begins to build up from the Gulf coast 
behind it. At the surface, a wave of low pressure off the 
Carolina coast will continue to meander over the offshore 
waters. Expect drier air to move in with a deeper northerly flow
but kept some low end chc of pcp as ECMWF and Canadian models 
both showing possible cutoff low developing early next week with
slower progression offshore, and possibility of perturbations 
riding across in N-NW flow aloft. Looks like best potential for 
any pcp will remain along the coast or offshore for the most 
part. Temps should continue to run above normal with overnight 
lows in the 60s and daytime highs within a few degrees of 80.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated showers this morning will become scattered by midday as
low level tropical moisture is rather abundant. Northeast flow
this morning will become more onshore this afternoon. Nocturnal
showers are likely tonight.

Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions could develop in 
association with clouds and multiple rounds of showers through 
the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...More difficult marine conditions to set in 
as gusty NE winds to 20 kt become common on the waters, as high 
pressure builds southward over land, a weak tropical low 
pressure offshore lifts north. No advisories but small craft 
should use caution, especially with a confused sea-state, of NE
wind-sea interacting with fresh swell of SE waves, producing 
chaotic, bumpy, and pitching conditions. Standing up on a small 
craft deck will be noticeably more difficult today than 
recently. Isolated TSTMs through late Thursday, and radar 
updates are encouraged before a venture out, especially Thursday
afternoon and evening as showers and storms become more 
numerous over the waters, moving to the NE.

Thursday night through Sunday... 
A wave of low pressure will meander off the Carolina coast Thurs
night into early next week moving farther offshore eventually.
This should produce a northerly flow over the waters through
most of the period, especially from Sat onward into early next
week. May see gradient tighten enough to produce a stiffer N-NE
flow pushing seas up near SCA thresholds over the weekend. A
longer period easterly swell will be in the mix wit overall seas
in the 3 to 5 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/RGZ