596 
FXUS63 KGLD 060930
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 AM MDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Oct 6 2021

With high pressure over the region this morning, skies are currently 
clear. Winds over the eastern half of the area are light and 
variable, while western locales are seeing south-southeast winds 
around 5-10 mph. Temps are ranging mainly in the 40s and 50s.

The latest RAP40 500mb analysis, in combination with mid level water 
vapor imagery, show an arcing upper ridge extending from the 
southern Plains up north-northeast into the Great Lks region. A 
cutoff low continues in place over the southeast, with an open 
trough working north into the west-central Rockies. The upper ridge 
wedged over the CWA will keep both systems at bay, providing the 72-
hour period, dry wx with above normal temps.

While keeping the area dry, the upper ridge does shift east on 
Friday, allowing the upper flow to become more southwesterly ahead 
of a stronger trough. Lee-side surface component sets up as well 
increasing the waa on southerly winds. This setup will increase the 
drying over the CWA.

Lee-side troughing west of the CWA today and on Thursday, will keep 
southerly flow intact over the area. With high pressure east of the 
CWA today, the gradient will be such that gusts 20-30 mph are 
expected. Winds will slacken as the lee-side trough moves east 
during the day. 

With all the dry wx expected, the CWA will continue to see fire wx 
concerns that will increase as time shifts towards the upcoming 
weekend. This afternoon, elevated fire wx conditions expected 
along/west of Highway 27. Thursday is tempered by slightly higher 
humidity and lighter winds. Friday, elevated to near critical 
conditions are in place for areas along/west of Highway 27.

For temps, the region will see daytime highs today and Thursday 
ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. On Friday, mainly mid to 
upper 80s. Overnight lows will range tonight/Thursday nights from 
the mid 40s west to near 50F east. Slightly warmer Friday night with 
upper 40s west to mid 50s east expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) 
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Oct 6 2021

To begin the extended period, SW flow will remain over the area on 
Saturday as an upper level trough moves across the Great Basin, 
pushing the ridge east. A lee surface trough will gradually move 
across the area throughout the day. Dry conditions are expected 
Saturday with RH values dropping into the lower 20s and upper teens 
mainly in areas along and SW of a Wray to Colby to Gove line. 
Elevated to near critical fire conditions are possible in the 
aforementioned area Saturday afternoon as winds gust around 20-25 
mph while shifting from SW to NW. Temperatures are expected to be in 
the upper 70s to upper 80s, with a near-record high possible in Hill 
City. The record for Hill City is 90 degrees (1965). Overnight lows 
are expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s, with a slight chance of 
rain possible in eastern CO and the neighboring counties north of I-
70.

The upper low will move across the Four Corners overnight Saturday 
and the Plains Sunday into the overnight hours. As the trough moves 
over the area, precipitation chances will increase during the late 
afternoon to overnight hours. Currently, the better confidence in 
for areas south of US-40. With the cloud cover and rain chances, 
temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 60s to mid 70s for 
highs and the upper 30s to mid 40s overnight.

The rain is expected to move east out of the area early Monday, 
leaving the remainder of the day into Tuesday morning dry as a weak 
upper ridge passes over. Precipitation chances return Tuesday 
afternoon as a strong upper trough moves across the Four Corners 
while a cold front pushes east across the CWA overnight 
Tuesday/early Wednesday. As the system moves across the Rockies into 
the High Plains, the latest model runs have the low shifting towards 
the NE which could place the Tri-State area in the dry slot of the 
low. Confidence is low in terms of precipitation amounts/chances 
given the uncertainty in the low's track this far out. High 
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 70s.
Overnight lows on Monday are expected to be in the 40s to lower 
50s. Tuesday night could be another drop into the 30s near the 
Palmer Divide with lows in the upper 30s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 942 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK. Southeasterly winds generally under 10kts overnight will
increase to around 12-16kts gusting to 24kts by mid-day. After
sunset, winds will ease back to 9-13kts from the southeast.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...AW