239 
FXUS63 KMPX 060857
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
357 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Clouds will be more widespread the next couple of days as we see an 
influx of moisture from the southeast. The deeper moisture arrives 
Thursday, along with a slight chance for showers or perhaps a 
thunderstorm along I-90. The threat for severe weather is 
near zero. 

TODAY through THURSDAY - Early morning satellite imagery with 
surface obs showed light southeast winds across the region, with 
stratus moving up from Iowa and Wisconsin. This trend will continue, 
and forecast soundings show a high likelihood of clouds during the 
day, so have increased the sky cover toward the cloudier end of the 
guidance. These clouds will keep temperatures a bit cooler than the 
past few days, with highs generally in the low 70s. 

Overnight deeper moisture will lift up from the southeast, and this 
will lead to scattered rain showers on Thursday. Forecast soundings 
do show a small amount of thin, elevated CAPE, so there is a small 
chance for thunder across mainly southern Minnesota and southwest 
Wisconsin. The threat for severe weather is very, very low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

The nearly stationary upper level low across the Mid South this 
morning will begin lifting north tonight and reach the Mid 
Mississippi Valley Thursday. It will then eventually get caught up in
the southwest flow, weaken, and exit to the northeast across the 
Great Lakes Friday. The presence of deeper moisture and some lift 
with the low will keep low shower chances through Thursday night. 

Steeper mid level lapse rates and warming temperatures will arrive
Friday and Saturday with a ridge building in behind the upper level 
low. Increasing instability will bring a better chance of
thunderstorms with another approaching shortwave from the southwest.
A surface low will track across the northern/central Plains and
somewhere across the Upper Midwest Saturday night into Sunday.
Precipitation is expected to be widespread along and north of the
track of the system, with dry conditions south. PoPs have been 
increased to likelies across central MN and north and remain in the
chance category across southern MN. 

Another system may follow the weekend one Monday and Monday night.
The best chances of showers with this one are to the south, but the
ECMWF has shifted north and now tracks it across MN and WI. 

A deep long wave trough will dig over the west and a very strong mid
level system may eject east from Colorado Tuesday night. This may be
the first powerful storm of the fall season as it develops northeast
across the northern Plains. 

The long term appears quite active, but not everyone will see
precipitation with each system. PoPs are littered throughout the
forecast, but this is because of inherent uncertainties with 
temporal and spatial details at this range with the number of 
systems passing through. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

VFR conditions for most locations. There is a chance for another
round of early morning fog/stratus at KRNH/KEAU. Meanwhile the rest 
of the locations will have increasing clouds during the morning and 
through the afternoon as southeast winds draw in low level moisture. 
These clouds should remain above 3000 ft.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. Low stratus will move in this morning, but
cloud bases closer to the 4000 ft level. Expect nearly overcast 
skies the rest of the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts. 
Fri...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts. 
Sat...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...JRB