211 
FXUS61 KCLE 060837
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
437 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger over the region through Thursday as low
pressure inches north into lower Mississippi Valley. The low will
continue to track north into the middle Mississippi Valley 
Thursday and may weaken over the Ohio Valley or Upper Great Lakes 
by Friday. This feature may continue to influence the area into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering low-level moisture has allowed low stratus and patchy
fog to develop early this morning. Fortunately, it appears that
surface winds are too high to allow widespread dense fog to
develop like Tuesday morning so not anticipating any fog-related
headlines outside of maybe an SPS this morning. Expect the fog
to lift and low stratus to scatter out by mid to late morning as
dry air develops at the surface thanks to high pressure centered
over Quebec anchoring itself over the region. 

Moist southerly return flow develops this afternoon as a broad 
trough pinches off into an upper-level low over the Lower 
Mississippi Valley that will gradually inch northward through 
the remainder of the period. Shower and isolated thunderstorm
chances increase with mid-level to high clouds this afternoon 
through Thursday as the system creeps northward, although the 
highest PoPs will likely lie to the southwest of the area where
there will be more favorable synoptic forcing through at least
Thursday morning. PoPs peak west of the I-71 corridor Thursday 
afternoon as the low inches into the middle Mississippi Valley.


Abnormally warm temperatures continue through the near term
period, with highs likely reaching the mid to upper 70s to near
80 degrees both today and Thursday. Tonight's lows will fall
into the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Closed upper level low moving out of the mid-Mississippi Valley will 
open and lift northeast across the Central Great Lakes over the 
weekend. Scattered showers with a chance of thunderstorms will be 
possible in the moist flow ahead of the trough, focused across 
Central and NW Ohio on Thursday night, then slowly shifting eastward 
Friday into Friday night. Coverage is expected to wane during the 
convective minimum late Thursday night into Friday morning with an 
uptick in coverage Friday afternoon. The stretch of above normal 
temperatures will continue with highs in the mid and upper 70s. By 
Saturday, remaining showers will be focused across the eastern half 
of the area but coverage is expected to be lower than the previous 
few days with the upper wave lifting north into Canada. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term forecast period will feature high confidence in above 
normal temperatures with 500mb heights climbing to 585dm over Ohio 
on Sunday. Southerly flow will increase on Sunday with a 
tightening gradient as low pressure approaches the western Great
Lakes with high pressure over New England. Many areas can 
expect highs to surpass 80 degrees on Sunday with good mixing 
and partly to mostly sunny skies with some mid 80s possible. 
925mb temperatures of 18-21C will be overhead Sunday into Monday
and raised highs by a degree or two for Monday. These may need 
to be raised further if this pattern verifies. 

Model spread increases by Tuesday with respect to the position of an 
upper level trough lifting across the Upper Midwest and associated 
surface low pressure system. The trend has been for this feature to 
be further west so will lean the forecast towards the 00Z 
ECMWF/Canadian with only a low 20 pop for portions of the area later 
Monday into Tuesday. In the absence of any showers or significant 
cloud cover, Tuesday may also end up being a very warm day with the 
potential to surpass 80 degrees for a third consecutive day in 
NW Ohio. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Non-VFR ceilings are present across the majority of the area
tonight with patchy fog and reduced visibilities present in
spots across the southern half of the area. Expect non-VFR
ceilings to persist through at least 12Z before beginning to
erode and scatter from the south after sunrise. Clouds may be 
stubborn to clear at KTOL, so continue MVFR ceilings at this
site through this afternoon. Broken mid-level to high clouds 
return later tonight as moisture increases from the south. 
Can't rule out scattered showers at terminals east of the I-71 
corridor after 18Z today, but did not include any showers in the
TAFs since the best chance of precip will lie to the southeast 
of the forecast area.

Winds will be easterly to northeasterly at 10 knots or less
through this morning before becoming southeasterly by the end of
the TAF period. Winds along the lakeshore may occasionally reach
10 to 12 knots during the forecast period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible within showers and thunderstorms
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Choppy conditions will continue on Lake Erie today with a northeast 
flow of 10-15 knots and perhaps briefly as high as 20 knots. The 
highest waves are expected to reach 2 to 4 feet on the central basin 
this evening. Winds will become slightly more easterly on Thursday 
and be 15 knots or less through Friday. A warm front will lift north 
across Lake Erie Friday night with southerly flow expected on Lake 
Erie for the weekend, peaking on Sunday in the 10-20 knot range.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...KEC