120 
FXUS63 KSGF 060738
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)

Scattered showers occurred over much of south central Missouri
overnight as an upper level low pressure system remained
stationary over eastern Arkansas. This feature will continue to
force additional showers and isolated thunderstorms through today,
particularly over areas east of Highway 37. 

Given the cloud cover and precipitation today, temperatures will
be a bit cooler, with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Showers will continue into tonight and Thursday AM, before exiting
east by Thursday PM. Highs on Thursday will be warmer with mid to
upper 70s expected. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) 

A major warming trend will be underway heading into the weekend.
Deep southwest flow aloft influenced by ridging along the 
Mississippi River Valley and long wave troughing across the 
intermountain west. 

Temperatures on Friday will bounce back into the mid and upper
80s. Even warmer readings are expected on Saturday, with highs 
reaching 90 out toward Joplin and Pittsburg. We will need to watch
for possible record highs on Saturday. 

By Sunday an upper level disturbance will shift into the central
Plains, forcing convection out in Kansas and Oklahoma. The Ozarks
should remain dry through Sunday afternoon with highs in the 80s.
However, widespread showers and thunderstorms will eventually
overspread the area Sunday night into Monday morning. 

Cooler and damp conditions are in store for Monday, as the trough
axis shifts directly over the state of Missouri. This feature will
exit Monday night, bringing warmer temperatures back into play for
Tuesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

VFR conditions are expected for at least the first three hours of
the TAF period as mid level clouds pass by. Conditions become 
more uncertain by 09-12z as there is the potential for IFR 
ceilings and vis to move into SGF. For now have gone optimistic on
ceilings and vis however its possible that both need reduced 
further as some models are showing LIFR conditions for SGF by 12z.

JLN and BBG will most likely not experience these IFR conditions,
however it may be close, especially at JLN. Otherwise, scattered 
showers are likely at times on Wednesday. At this time the thunder
potential is too uncertain to include in the TAFs. Winds will 
remain light out of the northeast through the period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield