504 
FXUS64 KMEG 060506
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.UPDATE...
See aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 907 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ 

UPDATE...Evening Update

Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a closed low centered
over southeast AR/northwest MS. At this time, there are still
ongoing showers and storms circling around this upper level 
feature, bringing some locally heavy rainfall and in some cases 
some small hail to portions of the Mid-South. Activity will 
likely be ongoing throughout the night as the upper level system 
meanders slightly to the northwest. Current temperatures are in 
the mid to upper 60s and not expected to drop much overnight given
cloud cover. Updated hourly PoPs and sky cover, otherwise, 
current forecast is on track. 

17 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Satellite trends place an upper level low
over West Central Mississippi. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radar trends
have indicated showers and a few thunderstorms have developed 
around this upper level low with the best coverage occurring over
North Mississippi thus far. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across
the Mid-South are in the 70s to lower 80s with the cooler
temperatures associated with recent rainfall over the past hour or
two. 

Short term model trends including Convective Allowing Model
solution trends indicate showers and a few thunderstorm chances 
will continue across the forecast area for the remainder of the
afternoon into at least early this evening before gradually
diminishing in coverage for the remainder of the night. Moderately
steep 700-500 mb layer mid-level lapse rates, cold air aloft due 
to the upper level low and mixed layer CAPE values between 
1500-2000 J/kg may result in the development of a few strong 
thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm. Marginally
large hail will be the main threat if any thunderstorms can reach
severe limits.

This aforementioned upper level low is expected to gradually
retrograde a bit northwest into Arkansas on Wednesday. Additional
showers and a few thunderstorms are anticipated to develop
especially during daytime heating. A few strong thunderstorms
producing small hail may be possible towards the Tennessee River 
on Wednesday if cloud cover isn't as widespread as forecast and
instability can be realized. Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in
the middle to upper 80s.

Rain free weather is expected to gradually return by Thursday
night as the upper level low moves northeast away from the Lower
Mississippi Valley and high pressure builds back into the area. 
Temperatures will gradually warm back into the lower to middle 80s
into the upcoming weekend. 

Long term models indicate another mid-level trough will rotate
through the region early next week, bringing yet another chance
for showers/thunderstorms back to the area. 

CJC

AVIATION...

Showers and storms are diminishing across the forecast area
tonight. Low cigs and patchy fog will start to settle in across
most terminals overnight. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to prevail
overnight. Showers should return for eastern portions of the
forecast area around 12 Z and last through the morning. Have added
VCSH to KTUP in the morning, but all other terminals dry. Most 
guidance shows that MVFR conditions will be the rule for Wednesday
with a few showers possible in the afternoon hours. 

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$