141 
FXUS62 KILM 060222
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1022 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms will gradually increase this week as tropical
moisture moves into the area. Above normal temperatures for
early October are expected much of this week, particularly 
morning lows. Unsettled weather will continue through the
weekend as a weak disturbance approaches from the southeast.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper level low centered near 
the AR/MS border aiding in moisture advection across the southeast, 
particularly with increasing high cloud coverage. A slight 
chance of showers moves onshore along coastal areas overnight. 
Low-level onshore flow will continue to keep dewpoints elevated
near 70 degrees, which will help keep low temps well above 
normal tonight in the upper 60s/near 70. Although coverage of 
high clouds tonight is expected to increase, the abundance of 
surface moisture will likely lead to patchy fog, and possibly 
low stratus inland early tomorrow morning.

While the upper low slowly moves northward during the day Wednesday 
to our west, mid level ridging and associated dry air edges in from 
the east Wed. Ridging will be strongest across SE NC. Combined with 
a weak CAD attempting to develop inland and potentially lingering 
stratus in the morning, have kept pops relatively low across inland 
SE NC. Widely scattered showers possible for NE SC Wed, though 
instability may be tough with increased cloud coverage and have kept 
thunder mostly limited to near the coast. High temps in the low to 
mid 80s. An offshore trough approaches from the southeast Wednesday 
night, keeping rain chances in the forecast overnight particularly 
near the coast. Well above normal low temps again forecasted for Wed 
night near 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
500 mb low centered over Missouri early Thursday will lift north 
through Friday night, leaving a trough axis which will drift 
eastward through the period. It appears the deepest transport of 
Gulf moisture will remain west of the forecast area, until perhaps 
Friday night as the trough reaches the Carolinas. At that point, 
there is model divergence, as the ECMWF wants to dig the trough out 
across SC/GA/FL. The GFS solution results in a lower amplitude 
trough that produces a closed low off the SC coast by 12Z Saturday. 
Meanwhile, a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms will be 
approaching from the Bahamas. At this point, conditions appear 
unfavorable for significant tropical development with this system as 
it lifts north, however it will produce increasing low-level 
Atlantic moisture across the area. 

Although there should be plenty of unsettled weather across the SE 
CONUS and off the SE U.S. coast, confidence is not very high 
regarding to what degree NE SC and SE NC will be directly impacted. 
At this point, we have been forecasting generally 50-70% PoPs 
Thursday and Friday, and see no reason to deviate much at this
point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A 500 mb low cuts off and drops south off the SE CONUS over the 
weekend. The surface disturbance/low will therefore meander off the 
Cape Fear coast, and an upper ridge axis will amplify over the 
western Carolinas. Best potential for precip should remain along the 
coast and just offshore through the period. This is reasonably 
represented in the current forecast and any deviations will be 
relatively small.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period with rain chances ending
across the area. Models continue to show a mainly dry night,
with fog/low cigs most likely over inland areas that received
rain today. Fog less likely near the coast where light winds 
will persist along with some mid/high clouds. Another round of 
convection expected on Wed as an upr-level low spins off to the 
west.

Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions could develop in association
with clouds and multiple rounds of showers through the end of
the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday Night...Onshore flow tonight around 10-15 kts will 
turn northeasterly Wednesday and increase to 15-20 kts as pressure 
gradient tightens between wedge inland and a surface trough 
approaching from the south. NE winds remain elevated around 15-20 
kts through Wed night. Best chance for rain and thunderstorms during 
the next 36 hours will be Wednesday evening into overnight hours as 
the aforementioned trough strengthens from the south. 2-3 ft seas 
tonight will be on the rise Wednesday to 3-4 ft by Wed afternoon 
into overnight hours. Few 5 footers possible across local outer 
coastal waters Wednesday evening and night. SE wind wave seas 
tonight will have ENE wind waves mixed in Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday: A disturbance will be moving up from 
the Bahamas, and although conditions appear unfavorable for 
tropical development, a weak low is expected to be located off 
the Cape Fear coast by Friday. Surface winds will remain 
generally out of the NE, although there will likely be swings to
the NNE or ENE at times. Speeds should also increase a bit as 
the low develops on Friday. The low will be in no hurry to move,
and may even begin to drift south late in the weekend as the 
mid-level low cuts off. Scattered to numerous showers and tstms
are expected, although the extent depends on just how the low 
evolves.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...VAO/CRM